This week began with an announcement that marked a turning point in the relationship between Colombia and the United States in the fight against drugs, after the State Department announced the country's decertification, a decision that places it on the blacklist alongside nations such as Burma, Venezuela, Bolivia, and Afghanistan.

The measure is based on the increase in coca cultivation and what Washington considers a setback in its anti-drug strategy, with implications that go beyond diplomacy and directly impact the economy. This is no small matter considering that nothing similar has happened since Ernesto Samper's administration.

The test that Colombia failed

For Daniel Mejía, a professor at the University of the Andes and a researcher on the effects of illicit economies, the decertification is due to the fact that Colombia arrived “in a very bad position” in the annual evaluation that the United States makes of drug-producing and transit countries, which ended up costing it.

"First, manual eradication of illicit crops fell by 93%, which is equivalent to a virtual dismantling of that strategy. Second, although the government highlights seizures, the interdiction rate fell from a historic 40% to just 28%, given that out of an estimated production of more than 2,600 tons, only about 700 tons were seized," he indicated.

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Likewise, this expert maintained that this change of position by the North American government was due to the failure of Gustavo Petro's commitment to voluntary crop substitution and alternative development, given that the budget execution figures of the National Comprehensive Substitution Program (PNIS) do not exceed

Finally, illicit crops are at historic highs, even higher than those recorded before Plan Colombia; therefore, for Mejía,"the Public Forces didn't fail, the Government did," blaming President Gustavo Petro directly for his lack of leadership and for insisting on a policy of total peace, which, in his opinion, strengthened criminal groups.

Risk of sanctions

On the other hand, retired General Juan Carlos Buitrago Arias, CEO of StrategosBIP, describes the decertification as a “global shame” that returns the country to the scenarios of the 1990s and in which the immediate consequence is the freezing of cooperation in security and justice, not only with the United States but also with multilateral organizations such as the UNODC and the OAS. This reduction in resources affects the State’s capacity for action and benefits the mafias.

General Buitrago warns that smuggling has become the preferred mechanism for monetizing drug trafficking revenues, since, according to him, cartels such as the Gulf Clan, the Sinaloa Clan, the Aragua Tren, and FARC dissidents have expanded their power in ports and borders in Colombia and other countries in the region, with the aim of capturing the international trade chain to launder money and consolidate territorial control.

"The impact is significant because it reduces the capacity of the State, which is financed through funds from cooperation with the United States and through international organizations. Criminals and mafia allies win here. Legality and communities lose.

The most recent InSight Crime report, based on data from the United Nations, confirms the deterioration in the fight against drugs, noting that in 2023, coca crops increased by 10% to 253,000 hectares; while potential cocaine production rose by 53%, reaching 2,664 tons, a historic high. This does not include the fact that almost half of these crops are concentrated in specially managed areas such as natural parks, indigenous reservations, forest reserves, and Afro-Colombian community territories. Here, Nariño and Cauca remain the main epicenters, and technological advances in cultivation allow each hectare to produce twice as much cocaine as a decade ago.

A lost leadership

Former Defense Minister and ambassador to Washington, Juan Carlos Pinzón, emphasizes the symbolic blow this decision represents and points out that for nearly 30 years, Colombia was recognized as a leader in the fight against drug trafficking and terrorism. That prestige, he says, was lost due to the current government's policy of appeasement with armed groups. The former minister emphasizes that the fight against drugs is not carried out to please a foreign government, but rather to protect Colombians from the corrosive power of criminal organizations. He points out that it is"disgraceful that, due to a government that did not do its job, the country is now internationally questioned."

Now Colombia must work to regain the trust of the United States authorities.

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Likewise, despite the seriousness of the measure, Pinzón is confident that additional sanctions will not be imposed and that a new government will be able to regain the status and reestablish full cooperation with the United States.

The backdrop of other crimes

Finally, while cocaine is consolidating as the country's main source of criminal income, other illegal economies are also putting pressure on security and the economy. According to the Ministry of Defense, between January and July 2025, kidnapping for ransom practically doubled, with 188 victims compared to 99 the previous year, while the total number of kidnappings increased from 131 to 143, and the number of victims from 160 to 249, an increase of 56%.

Although extortion fell 7% and human trafficking 9%, kidnappings reflect a shift in criminal structures toward crimes that directly affect individual freedom and the investment climate in several regions. Migrant smuggling, meanwhile, plummeted from 17 cases to just one, although experts warn that this may be due to a change in routes or underreporting. With all this, analysts agree that decertification is not an isolated incident but rather a symptom of a deeper dynamic with the expansion of criminal income, given that the combination of increased crops, more cocaine production, and a booming international market increases the risk of mafias capturing sectors of the formal economy.

While smuggling is proof of this, they could extend their influence to logistics chains, foreign trade, transportation, and even strategic productive sectors, jeopardizing international cooperation.