A peace plan, security guarantees, and an economic recovery plan. These are the three documents that make up the negotiating package for ending the war in Ukraine. According to authoritative Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, the text maintains Ukraine as a sovereign nation, with its borders protected by international security guarantees, part of the European Union , and committed to rebuilding its economy thanks to major investments from the United States and Europe. Ignatius cites American, Ukrainian, and European officials as sources. The talks are far from concluded, with Ukraine and its European backers planning to release a joint set of amendments on Wednesday, Ignatius writes, but lists some ideas they've explored. One of them is that Ukraine would join the European Union as early as 2027. This rapid accession worries some EU powers. But the Trump administration thinks it can overcome the opposition of Hungary, Kiev's main opponent in the EU. Membership would boost trade and investment. But perhaps more importantly, it would force Ukraine to control its pernicious culture of corruption in state-owned enterprises.
Among other points, the United States would provide NATO “Article 5-like” security guarantees to protect Ukraine if Russia violates the pact. Ukraine wants the United States to sign such an agreement and for Congress to ratify it; European nations would sign separate guarantees. Ukraine’s sovereignty would be protected from any Russian veto. But negotiators still appear to be wrestling with sensitive issues such as limits on Ukraine’s military. There is talk of increasing the initial US proposal for a military of 600,000 to 800,000 soldiers, which is still roughly the size Ukraine would have after the war. But Kiev rejects any formal constitutional limit, as Russia has demanded. Whatever the nominal size of the army, there could be additional forces such as the National Guard or other support units. A demilitarized zone (DMZ) would be established along the entire ceasefire line, from Donetsk province in the northeast to the cities of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south. Behind this DMZ would be a deeper zone where heavy weaponry would be excluded. This line would be closely monitored, modeled on the DMZ dividing North and South Korea.
“Territorial swaps” are an inevitable part of the deal, but Ukraine and the United States are still arguing over how to draw the lines. Russia demands that Ukraine cede about 25 percent of the Donetsk region it still controls; Trump’s team argues that Ukraine risks losing much of that area in battle over the next six months and should therefore make concessions now to avoid further casualties. US negotiators have been trying various ways to make this concession more palatable to Zelensky. One proposal calls for the withdrawal zone to be demilitarized. Zelensky reiterated on Monday that he has “no legal right” to cede territory to Russia. One way around the problem is the Korean model; South Korea still claims the entire peninsula, as does North Korea. The Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, would no longer be under Russian occupation. Negotiators are discussing the possibility of the United States taking over management of the plant. Strange as it may seem, the idea appeals to several Ukrainian officials because it would provide a kind of American deterrent against further Russian aggression.
