The European Commission took a substantial step forward on Wednesday against Israel over its war on Gaza and its violations of human rights in the Palestinian enclave. The European Commission approved a plan to suspend certain aspects of the trade agreement between the EU and Israel—which has been in place for three decades—and reinstate tariffs on goods from that country, which until now have enjoyed preferential treatment within the EU. The EU is Israel's main trading partner worldwide.

The measure, which comes at a time when the situation in Gaza is already critical, does not aim to suspend all trade with Israel, but only to end preferential treatment, and will primarily affect agricultural products, according to Commission sources. The plan would apply to exports worth around €5.8 billion (37% of Israel's total sales to the EU), meaning that the reimposition of tariffs could result in an additional cost of around €227 million per year for Israeli exporters, according to Brussels estimates.

The proposal from the EU executive, led by Germany's Ursula von der Leyen, now goes to the 27 EU Member States: it will need the support of a qualified majority of these states to be definitively approved. There is no set deadline for this final approval.

The President of the European Council, António Costa, one of the most vocal European officials critical of the Israeli offensive in Gaza, welcomed the proposal, which, he stressed,"is not against the Israeli people." Its objective, he said in a social media post in which he made clear his hope for the measures' success, is"to demonstrate that Europe cannot accept the actions of the Israeli government in Gaza and the West Bank, which have gone far beyond Israel's legitimate right to defend itself."

The Commission is launching the proposal after establishing that certain measures adopted by the Israeli government constitute a violation of essential elements related to respect for human rights and democratic principles, a fundamental point of the agreement with the EU. This, according to EU experts, empowers the Union to unilaterally suspend the agreement."We regret having to take this step, but we believe it is appropriate and proportionate given the humanitarian crisis in Gaza," European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Wednesday.

To reach this conclusion, Brussels focuses in particular on the rapid deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Gaza due to Israel's offensive, the blockade of humanitarian aid, the intensification of military operations, and the Israeli authorities' decision to move forward with the settlement plan in the West Bank, which, they emphasize, further undermines the two-state solution (Palestinian and Israeli) proposed by a large part of the international community.

As part of the package of measures to pressure Israel, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Policy, Kaja Kallas, also proposes, for the first time, sanctioning two Israeli ministers (Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir), considered extremists. Brussels is considering imposing a list of restrictions on them (including asset freezes and a ban on entering EU territory), which also includes several members of Hamas and a group of violent Israeli settlers and organizations. This is the most complex point: implementing individual sanctions requires the unanimity of the Member States."The objective is not to punish Israel, but to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza," Kallas stressed at a press conference in Brussels.

Under intense political and public pressure, von der Leyen's European Commission—which has faced harsh criticism in recent months for its closeness to Benjamin Netanyahu's government—will first take an immediate step that does not require the support of the governments of the Twenty-Seven: the suspension of bilateral support to Israel. This measure involves freezing payments and certain bilateral support programs for that country (with the exception of those supporting civil society and the Holocaust memorial) and its executive branch—approximately €20 million—as part of the neighborhood, development, and international cooperation support plans.

But the heart of Brussels' proposal is the suspension of parts of the trade agreement with Israel, which dates back to the 1990s. This measure was first proposed by Spain and Ireland a year and a half ago in response to the Israeli military offensive in Gaza, which has already killed nearly 65,000 civilians. European Commission experts estimate that, of all trade flows with Israel, 37% enjoy preferential tariff treatment under the trade agreement. That percentage (approximately €5.8 billion) would be affected by the measure.

The initiative, therefore, is not only symbolic, but also practical and economically powerful. It affects the EU (since European products destined for Israel would also face tariffs), but above all Israel, which has the EU as its primary partner in this area (accounting for 32% of its trade flow). However, the political and legal procedure required to paralyze this agreement, which Brussels wants to use as leverage against Netanyahu, could turn the measure into smoke: the EU executive now passes the buck to the governments of the 27 member states, and at that stage, fierce opposition could arise from the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Austria, which have been Israel's most important allies in the EU until now.

For the measure to be definitively approved, a qualified majority of countries is required, that is, a favorable vote of at least 55% of the Member States (15 out of 27) representing at least 65% of the total EU population. This means that the position of the Union's largest states, such as Germany, Italy, and Poland, will be decisive. What Berlin, which has traditionally opposed measures against Israel, does is crucial and can mobilize other partners. Rome has also been reluctant so far.

“We're not going to speculate on whether or not there will be a qualified majority. I think the president has been very clear on this. We will assume our responsibility, she assumes hers, the Commission and the College [of Commissioners] assume theirs today, and, of course, we hope other institutions will do the same,” said a source from the EU executive. If the decision is approved by the EU Council—by the required qualified majority of Member States—Brussels will inform the World Trade Organization (WTO) and it will have to wait 30 days for it to enter into force, according to a European official.

Brussels, however, aims to engage in dialogue with Israel to ensure it respects international and humanitarian law in Gaza, and avoids having to impose measures, Commission sources say.