Far from the stalled front line, Russia and Ukraine are waging a fierce parallel war war on energy each other - and it is she who will perhaps bring them closer to negotiations faster than any diplomatic efforts.

In recent days, this confrontation has escalated: the US and Europe have announced new large-scale sanctions against the Russian oil industry - the main source of income for the Kremlin's military machine, writes The New York Times.

"Energy War" Comes to the Fore

Ukraine, for its part, is seeking to increase international pressure on Russia's energy economy and is imposing its own"long-range sanctions." Russia is targeting Ukraine's electricity and gas infrastructure, trying to cripple the country's energy system ahead of winter. Experts say Moscow's goal is to undermine Ukraine's ability to function and break the population's will to resist.

The media writes that it remains unclear who will be the first to succumb to economic pressure. However, both sides view energy attacks as a strategic tool capable of breaking the deadlock in the war, which has been going on for almost four years and has still not yielded to peacemaking initiatives by the administration of US President Donald Trump.

As winter approaches, Russia is likely to continue its offensive, but with the fighting slowing down due to the cold and poor visibility, the energy confrontation will become the main battlefield in the coming months. According to Balash Jarabik, a former EU diplomat who now works at the analytical company R.Politik, the new US sanctions against the largest Russian oil companies - Lukoil and Rosneft - were most likely a response to Russia's attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid.

These measures are aimed at forcing the Kremlin to stop attacks and consider a limited ceasefire regarding energy facilities.

The work of sanctions against Russia

Analysts warn that Russia can withstand sanctions without changing its military goals. Moscow has already proven that it can circumvent Western restrictions by relying on trade with China and India and using gray schemes.

But the current sanctions are the first to directly strike at the heart of the Russian economy, the oil sector, which generates hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The restrictions reportedly cut companies off from the global financial system and impose fines on countries that continue to buy Russian oil.

Experts estimate that Rosneft and Lukoil account for about half of Russia's crude oil production. Their inclusion on the sanctions list could force even major buyers like India to cut imports. The loss of these revenues would make it harder for Moscow to buy weapons and pay its military. The drop in oil revenues could push Moscow into negotiations.

Russia is already feeling the economic pressure: next year, military spending is set to fall for the first time since the war began. The country could begin to struggle to sustain its military campaign in the coming months.

Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have already destroyed or damaged about 20% of Russian capacity, causing fuel shortages in a number of regions. Kyiv is keen to show that the war is now being felt on Russian soil.

Journalists note that Ukraine is also striking at the Russian military-industrial complex, limiting Moscow's ability to wage war. The Ukrainian Armed Forces recently reported an attack by British Storm Shadow missiles on a factory that produced explosives and rocket fuel.

Strikes on the Ukrainian energy system

Russia is continuing its long-range attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, adding the gas infrastructure that powers most homes to its list of targets. The goal, experts say, is to plunge the country into cold and darkness, depriving people of heat, water, and light, thereby breaking morale.

Russia is expanding its campaign to target the gas infrastructure that powers most homes after Kiev cut off Russian gas transit. According to European sources, recent strikes have knocked out about 60% of Ukraine’s gas production capacity and some compressor stations.

Due to fuel shortages, the start of the heating season is being delayed in some cities, and there is growing concern that many homes will be left without heat.

Energy war between Ukraine and Russia

UNIAN previously reported that Russia attacked DTEK mine, where almost 500 employees were located. Everyone was brought to the surface. No casualties were reported. This is the 7th large-scale enemy attack on DTEK coal enterprises in the last 2 months.

In addition, we said that Putin wants to call up reservists to protect refineries from Ukrainian drones There is currently no public data on how many people could be recruited into the Russian Army in this way. According to some estimates, up to 2 million people from the so-called"active reserve" could be called up.