French politics have once again entered a period of turmoil. Prime Minister François Bayrou, appointed just nine months ago by Emmanuel Macron, was ousted on Monday after overwhelmingly losing a vote of confidence in the National Assembly: 364 votes against versus 194 in favor.
Bayrou, 74, had called the vote hoping to win support for his ambitious budget cuts—€44 billion in cuts by 2026—but the move turned into political suicide. Lawmakers from across the political spectrum seized the opportunity to force his downfall and bring down a government already operating in a minority.
The resignation opens a new chapter of instability for Europe's second-largest economy, in a context marked by internal budgetary pressures and a turbulent international scenario.
Now, all responsibility falls on Emmanuel Macron. The French president faces three alternatives, each fraught with risk.
The first is to appoint a new prime minister. This is the most likely institutional path, though not necessarily the simplest: both Michel Barnier and Bayrou himself took weeks to be appointed, and in such a fragmented parliament, it will be difficult to find a figure capable of holding on to the position without quickly falling. In the meantime, Bayrou would continue in office as interim prime minister.
Another option is to call early elections. Under pressure from his opponents—particularly Marine Le Pen and her National Rally party—Macron could opt to dissolve the National Assembly and call the French back to the polls.
Le Pen has raised the stakes by demanding the immediate dissolution of Parliament. Although she will not be able to run in elections due to her disqualification in a case of misappropriation of European funds—pending appeal in January and February—she is confident that her party will capitalize on the discontent and achieve a majority."A large country like France cannot live with a government of paper, especially in such a turbulent and dangerous world," she warned in the Assembly.
However, polls predict that the Chamber would again be divided into three blocs (left, center-right, and far-right), with none achieving a clear majority. The most likely outcome would be, once again, a legislative deadlock.
The third possibility is to tender his own resignation. Although more than two-thirds of French people are calling for his resignation, Macron insists he will remain in office until the end of his term. For now, his resignation appears unlikely.
The fall of François Bayrou is not just the resignation of a prime minister, but a further symptom of the institutional crisis France is experiencing. Macron must now decide between maneuvering within an unfavorable parliamentary system, risking early elections that could strengthen the far right, or resisting the erosion of power with the promise of staying in office until 2027.
Even if Macron succeeds in appointing a new prime minister, he will face a scenario of chronic paralysis. Each candidate he proposes will need to avoid automatic rejection from the opposition, something difficult in today's France. Meanwhile, time is running out: budgetary problems are not waiting, and the country remains under external pressures that require political stability.
