A few hours before President Trump's long-awaited announcement of new tariffs on European products, the European Union is on high alert. Brussels is trying to buy time, keep the communication channel open and limit the damage, while the American side seems determined to escalate the trade war.

Decision time from the White House

Donald Trump's letter to Brussels is expected to be released later today, outlining the United States' intention to impose new tariffs on European imports. As the US president himself has already hinted, the new measures could reach up to 20% and come into effect on August 1 — with the list of products remaining open.

Trump has made it clear that he is targeting countries and blocs that have not signed bilateral trade agreements with the US. And right now, Europe is at the top of the list.

Brussels: Hope for time, not for an agreement

The European Commission is looking for ways to de-escalate the situation by intensifying negotiations with Washington. However, the atmosphere is heavy. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appeared realistic but categorical: We are not naive. We know that our relations with the US will never be the same again.

According to European officials, the best outcome the Union can now seek is for new tariffs not to exceed the existing 10% limit. Anything above that would signal a new, more aggressive phase in trade competition, with multiple consequences for businesses and markets.

Disagreements within the EU complicate strategy

Alongside contacts with Washington, Brussels also has to manage internal contradictions. Countries with strong export performance to the US, such as Germany, are pushing for more flexible handling in order to avoid the worst. On the other hand, France and southern European countries do not rule out a dynamic reaction and possible countermeasures.

The negotiations are complex, not only because of Washington's demands, but also because of the different national interests within the EU, explain sources close to the process. The risk of an internal rift, in view of Trump's crucial announcement, is real.

From protectionism to escalation – the Trump plan

The United States has already imposed a basic tariff of 10% on most European products, while in some sectors — such as cars and aluminum — the rates are as high as 25% and 50% respectively. Washington has also issued warnings of additional tariffs on agricultural, pharmaceutical and technology products.

Trump's strategy no longer presents elements of negotiation, but looks like pure economic blackmail: either you make a trade deal on Washington's terms or you pay the price.

Hope dies last.

According to Bank of America, EU member states now understand that the main scenario on the table is for the tariff to remain at 10%. In return, the EU hopes for targeted exemptions, mainly for cars and medicines. However, the agreement – if there is one – will not be mutually beneficial, but an attempt to minimize losses.

The Commissioner for Finance, Valdis Dombrovskis, stressed that negotiations are continuing intensively, and that postponing the final decision to August 1 gives a little more time, but no room for illusions.

Facing a new reality

Trump's announcement today is not just another episode in the long history of transatlantic tensions. It reflects a deeper strategic rift and shifts the global trading system onto a new trajectory, centered on unilateral US protectionism.

For Europe, the stakes are not simply avoiding tariffs, but maintaining its international role in a world where old allies have become unpredictable competitors.