In the first trip to Asia of his second term, all eyes will be on how U.S. President Donald Trump engages with Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a protege of the late Shinzo Abe with whom the American leader had a close relationship.
After traveling to Malaysia on the weekend, Trump's three-day visit to Japan is set to begin Monday, less than a week after Takaichi was elected the country's first female premier. For any foreign leader, dealing with Trump, who is more politically seasoned than during his first presidency, is a challenge.
In the world of diplomacy, personal relationships matter, and this is especially true when it comes to Trump.
Without much time to prepare for her first face-to-face interaction with Trump, Takaichi must tackle the daunting task of forming a bond with him and ensuring that Japan-U.S. ties do not derail under her leadership.
"Although it is always difficult to predict how meetings with Trump will unfold, Takaichi seems to have the potential to build rapport with him based on their shared conservative views," said Kristi Govella, senior adviser and Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Govella added that Takaichi could follow the example of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has positioned herself as the closest mainstream European leader to Trump, capitalizing on their ideological proximity.
In a similar vein, Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based think tank, said,"I think the most important thing is that Japan's new prime minister establishes a good relationship with President Trump."
Glaser said Trump "respects strong leaders with strong opinions," so she thinks Takaichi should articulate her vision for Japan's future and its long-standing security alliance with the United States when they meet in Tokyo.
Some foreign affairs experts have observed that Takaichi's relationship with Abe gives her a distinct advantage that she could use to win Trump's favor. Abe arguably developed the most profound friendship with Trump of any leader during the U.S. president's first term.
Takaichi, a hard-line conservative and security hawk, has given many senior posts to lawmakers who were affiliated with Abe before he was killed in a shooting during a campaign rally in 2022, expressing a willingness to emulate her mentor's attempts to revitalize Japan's economy and further strengthen its defense capabilities.
At her inauguration press conference on Tuesday, Takaichi used phrases reminiscent of Abe to explain her cabinet's basic policies, such as saying that it will"restore Japanese diplomacy that flourishes on the world's center stage."
On Wednesday, Trump is scheduled to depart Japan for South Korea, the final leg of his three-nation trip to the region, where he plans to hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of a two-day annual Asia-Pacific economic summit.
Amid renewed trade tensions between the United States and China, few pundits predict a dramatic improvement in bilateral tensions or a groundbreaking deal between them.
Trump's priorities on China have shifted to trade and technology issues, with his second administration apparently concerned less about Taiwan or Asia's broader security situation.
He often makes comments on China, but he does so primarily in terms of the U.S. economic relationship with the country, arguing it should be a"two-way street" and that American companies are not permitted to operate on a level playing field with their Chinese rivals.
China, in contrast, seems to have adopted a longer-term and more systemic strategy toward the United States, with its focus on growing its power.
While Trump has rarely discussed Taiwan from a security perspective, Glaser said it would be surprising if Xi did not bring up the status of the self-ruled island, which Beijing claims as part of its territory.
"The question is how he raises it and what his ask is," Glaser said, adding that she thinks Xi will try to extract some concessions from Trump and continue to"get a U.S. president to say that we oppose Taiwan independence."
Given that Trump's conversation about Taiwan with Takaichi may be one of the last he has with a world leader before meeting Xi, Glaser said the new prime minister has an opportunity to convey concerns of Japan and other countries in the region.
"If she underscores to him how important the preservation of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is to Japan, and how important Taiwan security is to Japan, then maybe that will influence his thinking about how he deals with Taiwan when it is raised by Xi," she said.
If Takaichi is prepared to navigate the Taiwan issue with the U.S. leader, she may be wise to keep her own counsel on Trump's ongoing trade war with China.
Believing that the imposition of hefty tariffs is the best tool to gain compromises from other countries, reduce chronic U.S. trade deficits and advance his"America First" agenda, Trump launched a trade war with China, as he did during his first term, in the early days of his second presidency.
After spiraling into tit-for-tat tariffs on each other's goods, the United States and China agreed to temporarily drop their protectionist measures from triple digits in May and extended the pause for another 90 days in August.
Despite maintaining the tariff truce for months, which has given officials of the two countries more time to work out differences, fresh U.S.-China trade tensions flared in the weeks leading up to Trump's meeting with Xi, and before the pause is set to expire on Nov 10.
In response to China's new export controls on rare earth minerals, Trump has threatened to impose an additional 100 percent tariff on its goods starting Nov 1.
Govella, also an associate professor of international relations at the University of Oxford, said she expects Trump to be focused on accentuating his strengths as a dealmaker during the Asia trip.
"Regardless of the actual outcomes of the trip, Trump will use it as an opportunity to emphasize his own central role in shaping regional and global politics," she said.
© KYODO
