Donald Trump's Personal envoy Steve Witkoff is reportedly heading back to Russia for the first time since April this week. A last-ditch effort, that is.

On Friday, the deadline that Donald Trump gave Vladimir Putin to arrange a ceasefire with Ukraine and silence the guns expires.

But there is no indication that Putin intends to give in. That is also the impression that Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar has.

Zygar has good contacts both within the Kremlin and the men (most of them are) around the Russian president, and in the Russian business elite.

In an article in the New York Times, he describes how the thinking is now going there. Much has changed compared to how it looked at the beginning of this year, when Trump had just taken office as president and humiliated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj in the White House.

At that time, there was hope in Moscow that Russian-American relations could truly improve. American businessmen who said they had supported Trump's election campaign appeared in Moscow and spoke of the sanctions being lifted soon.

The Russian businessmen hoped that peace might be possible after all. They no longer believe that.

But neither they nor the Kremlin are afraid of Trump's new threats. According to Zygar's sources, Putin has concluded that a working relationship with Trump is simply not possible.

Putin sees no point in negotiating with the US, believes that compromises serve no purpose. Because even if a deal were to be reached, what's to stop Trump from changing his mind in the future?

Moreover, Zygar's sources say, Putin sees Trump's days in power as numbered. In just over three years, someone completely different will be in power in Washington, unless Trump, against all odds, challenges the constitution and seeks re-election.

In Russia, however, Vladimir Putin – if he gets his way – will rule the country well into the 2030s.

The Russian business elite and the Kremlin also do not seem particularly intimidated by Trump's warnings that he will impose high tariffs on countries that import large amounts of oil from Russia.

85 percent of Russia's oil exports today go to India and China. India then sells a lot of it on.

The numbers are truly remarkable. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, India imported less than one percent of its oil from Russia. By 2023, that share had risen to 45 percent.

Russia also continues to export gas and here the EU is still a major customer, with countries such as France, Belgium, Hungary and Slovakia as the largest importers.

Gas revenues also contribute to the Russian war economy. However, Trump has not talked so much about the EU, as about India and China specifically being targeted for the new punitive tariffs of perhaps 100 percent or even higher.

But the Russian elite doesn't seem to believe that Trump is serious. Is Trump really prepared to sacrifice the relationship with India just to punish Russia?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – another strong nationalist leader – has had a good relationship with Trump, but he is already getting angry over the 25 percent tariffs that the US is already about to impose.

And when it comes to China, the US has already tried sky-high tariffs, but Trump quickly learned that China has enough muscle to fight back, in what it feels like, like its own greatly increased tariffs and restrictions on the export of rare earth metals.

Is Trump willing to escalate that conflict again? Vladimir Putin and the power elite in Moscow apparently believe no.

But Trump's turnaround is of course a major setback for Putin. There is no doubt that he had expected a world more favorable to Russia if Trump were elected president.

Now we have two disappointed, very powerful men glaring at each other with increasing anger. But the man in the Kremlin is counting on the showman in the White House to blink first.