By starting with close partners, US president aims to warn rest of world no country is immune, analysts say

South Korea and Japan were taken aback last week when US President Donald Trump took aim at two of America’s longtime Asian allies, dashing any expectation of preferential treatment regarding his"reciprocal" tariffs.

In nearly identical letters sent to the leaders of the two neighbors, Trump announced 25 percent tariffs to start Aug. 1, unless Korea and Japan each dismantle what he described as unfair trade barriers. Though Trump sent similar tariff letters to 12 other countries that day, his choice to publicize the Seoul and Tokyo letters first was seen as a deliberate move that one analyst said was to amp up pressure and show that even allies are not immune to Trump's hard-line tariffs.

“Trump wants to make an example out of Korea and Japan, the two closest allies with large US trade surpluses, strong industrial bases and deep security ties with Washington,” said Heo Yoon, a professor of international studies at Sogang University. “He is trying to show that there’s no exception when it comes to tariffs, allies or not.”

Asked why Trump started with Korea and Japan, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt simply stated, “It’s the president’s prerogative, and those are the countries he chose.”

Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, said in a commentary that the tariffs on South Korea and Japan “will send a chilling message to others," signaling that Washington may not grant exemptions under Section 232 tariffs, particularly on automobiles, which is"a high priority for both countries."

Cutler expressed disappointment that Trump appears to be going ahead with the tariffs, despite both countries being close partners on economic security matters that have a lot to offer the US in areas including shipbuilding, semiconductors, critical minerals and energy cooperation.

“Companies from both countries have made significant manufacturing investment in the US in recent years, bringing high-paying jobs to US workers and benefiting communities all around the country," she said.

The steep tariffs come despite Japan's ongoing engagement with the US, including seven rounds of high-level talks in Washington since April and a visit to Washington by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was one of the first leaders to make the trip in Trump's second term.

Japan responded strongly, with Ishiba calling Trump’s latest tariff move “truly regrettable,” while ruling Liberal Democratic Party policy chief Itsunori Onodera condemned that notifying a key ally with a single letter is “extremely disrespectful."

South Korea, by contrast, has struck a more measured tone.

Seoul appeared relieved to have bought more time from the initial deadline of July 9, delayed to Aug. 1, to negotiate with the Trump administration, acknowledging a lack of sufficient time to reach an agreement after the new Lee Jae Myung administration commenced in early June. Nonetheless, the government here held series of emergency meetings and vowed all-out efforts to negotiate its way out of looming duties.

Following the announced moves against Seoul and Tokyo, Trump expanded his tariff barrage to other long-standing allies. Canada now faces a 35 percent tariff, while the European Union is to be subject to a rate of 30 percent. Meanwhile, Mexico faces a tariff of 30 percent, Philippines 20 percent and Thailand 36 percent.

“We’ve been taken advantage of for many, many years by countries, both friend and foe. And frankly, the friends have been worse than the foes in many cases,” Trump told reporters on Friday when asked about tariffs.

Trump has long argued that the United States' trade deficit ― where its imports exceed exports ― is the result of unfair trade policies by other countries.

According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US posted $68.5 billion in deficit with Japan and $66 billion deficit with South Korea last year, ranking them as the seventh and eighth top deficit partners.

In terms of imports, Japan and Korea accounted for 4.5 percent and 4 percent of total US imports, respectively, trailing behind only China, Mexico, Canada and Germany.

For Trump, who is fixated on reducing this trade imbalance, Japan and Korea are hard to overlook.

Trump is convinced that slapping higher tariffs on goods from Seoul and Tokyo and pressuring them to buy more American products will help close the gap. After announcing the latest tariffs Monday, Trump told reporters that Seoul and Tokyo had “had their way for many, many decades” and that the US “just wanted fairness.”

Professor Heo noted that both countries' close strategic ties with the US give Washington leverage. “Trump understands he can pressure these allies to meet his demands because of their deep economic and security ties, including the defense cost sharing,” he said. “Trump knows he can secure meaningful concessions from them and then present those as political wins.”

The US is one of the largest export markets for both Seoul and Tokyo, particularly in key industries like automobiles, semiconductors, electronic appliances and steel.

According to Japanese customs data, the US was Japan’s largest export market last year, receiving 21.3 trillion yen ($145 billion) worth of Japanese goods. Automobiles and auto parts comprised approximately 34 percent of the shipments, representing the biggest single industry category. Other sectors include machinery, electronic appliances and semiconductors.

For Korea, the US was the second-largest export market after China, as it exported $127.8 billion to the US last year. Automobiles and auto parts combined for the largest single category with about 30 percent, followed by semiconductors at approximately 10 percent, according to the Korea International Trade Association.

This heavy reliance on a few high-performing sectors leaves both countries vulnerable to targeted trade measures, analysts say.

“The US, as a chronic trade deficit country with a growing deficit, will make efforts to improve not only under the Trump administration, but beyond,” said Chung Sung-hoon, a senior fellow at the Korea Development Institute, in a recent report. “Especially since Korea’s surplus is concentrated in few items, those very categories are likely to become the main target of tariff policy.”

Chung added that among the US top 10 trade deficit items last year, three categories ― including home appliances, semiconductors and automobiles ― exactly match Korea’s key export sectors. These are also the areas where the US has already announced additional tariffs, putting Korea at greater risk.

American 25 percent tariffs on automobiles and auto parts have already delivered a significant blow to Japanese and South Korean automakers.

Japan, which exports more than 1 million vehicles to the US annually, witnessed its exports of motor vehicles to the US plummet 24.7 percent on-year in May, right after the auto tariffs were imposed the previous month, according to the Finance Ministry. The Japan External Trade Organization projected that US tariffs on automobiles could reduce Japan’s gross domestic product by 0.3 percent this year.

In South Korea, the Bank of Korea projected in May that US tariff policies will hit the auto industry the hardest, estimating an overall 0.6 percent drop in exports, with US-bound exports facing a steeper 4 percent decline this year.