The United States has moved from rhetoric to action. The White House celebrated as a major event the Tuesday explosion of a boat that had set sail from Venezuela by its military contingent deployed in the southern Caribbean. None of the 11 crew members on board survived what appears to have been a missile strike, according to images released by the US government.
The emphasis Donald Trump has given to the attack in international waters increases the pressure on Nicolás Maduro, whom Washington is demanding be brought to justice for leading an international drug cartel. In a televised appearance, the Venezuelan president did not explicitly address what happened. He did, ironically, end with a Rubén Blades song: the anti-American classic"Jaws."
The Chavista government is under unprecedented military pressure. In recent weeks, Trump has deployed three destroyers, P-8 spy planes, battleships, and a nuclear submarine to an undetermined point in the Caribbean Sea. Although their exact location is unknown because their electronic systems block radar signals, some experts place the contingent on the border with Venezuelan international waters. This show of force is intended to intimidate the drug cartels that send their shipments to the US, but not only them. It also intimidates a person with a name and surname: Nicolás Maduro.
The Venezuelan president has gotten the message, has deployed troops to the border, and says he's ready to declare an armed struggle. Throughout the country, people are being encouraged to join a militia to confront a hypothetical US military incursion, even if it might be clearly outnumbered.
The State Department claims that Maduro leads the Cartel of the Suns, an organization it has declared a terrorist organization so it can be confronted by its military. So far, no evidence has been provided that Chávez's successor is behind this organization.
Maduro has experienced many moments of uncertainty in his 12 years at the helm, but none of this magnitude. He has found himself internationally isolated since last year declaring himself the winner of a presidential election that was clearly rigged.
Chavismo unleashed repression in the country, with thousands arrested, and the virtual winner of those elections, Edmundo González, went into exile in Spain. Not even leftist powers in Latin America, such as Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil, recognized his self-proclamation. However, he managed to remain in office in a way that has been very successful for Chavismo: the wear and tear that comes with the passage of time. Little by little, the Venezuelan political situation faded from the international agenda.
Trump's arrival at the White House was enthusiastically celebrated by María Corina Machado, the absolute leader of the Venezuelan opposition. The tycoon arrived accompanied by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a personal friend of Machado's who had used very aggressive language against the Cuban and Venezuelan regimes during his political career. He is considered, in fact, the main advocate within the Trump administration against sanctions and economic pressure against those countries.
Turning from the initial approach
However, the US president moved closer to Maduro in his first months in office by sending his special missions envoy, Richard Grenell, to Caracas. The American official posed for a photo with the Venezuelan president at Miraflores Palace, the presidential residence, while they both looked at a sword of Simón Bolívar. On the return flight, he took six Americans imprisoned in Venezuela. In Washington, it was said that Grenell, who is close to the interests of oil companies, had an advantage over Rubio on this issue.
Later, an agreement was reached for the fossil fuel giant Chevron to continue operating in Venezuela, providing vital revenue for the country's public coffers. And authorization was granted for local deportees to arrive from the United States.
Many interpreted these moves as a way to give the Maduro government breathing space. Chavismo trusted—and still trusts—the non-interventionist policy with which Trump came to power, which advocates limiting US military and diplomatic commitments abroad. However, they also know he is an unpredictable person who unsettles his own advisors—they advised him not to attack Iran, and he did.
"Our main enemy is Marco Rubio," a Chavista leader says via text message. He asserts that the president's entourage is"calm" and doesn't believe an invasion will occur."We're open to talking about anything," he adds. Chavismo moves, as it always has, between two tensions: using harsh and provocative rhetoric while always showing a willingness to negotiate. In fact, it rarely attacks Trump head-on. In his speeches, the target of Maduro's criticism is usually Rubio, whom he accuses of poisoning the president with his ideas.
In a matter of weeks, the escalation has reached unimaginable levels. The deployment in the Caribbean Sea was an initial wake-up call for Maduro, but it remained to be seen what Washington's next step would be. A declassified video has shown what it was: destroying a barge leaving Venezuela in a matter of seconds and annihilating everyone on board. The message has been sent.
