247 - The plan to try to free former president Jair Bolsonaro from his convictions involves electing the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), to the Presidency in 2026 and, from there, changing the composition of the Supreme Federal Court (STF).

According to Coluna do Estadão , Bolsonaro's allies expect the next president to have the opportunity to appoint at least three justices to the Supreme Court, since mandatory retirement occurs at age 75. Tarcísio has already promised that, if elected, he will pardon Bolsonaro as his first measure of government. Furthermore, he would be able to choose new names for the Court who are closer to the project of acquitting the former president.

The Bolsonaro supporters' calculations, however, suffer a setback. Luiz Fux, who voted for Bolsonaro's acquittal in the coup plot trial and was once considered a"lifeline" by the group, will be the first justice to leave the Supreme Court due to mandatory retirement. He turns 75 in April 2028 and, therefore, will not be available in a possible future composition favorable to Bolsonaro.

This means that, even with the planned changes, the Court's standings won't change in the short term. The other justices who will also have to retire in the coming years are Cármen Lúcia, in April 2029, and Gilmar Mendes, in December 2030.

Although it doesn't change the Supreme Court's balance, Fux's vote had political repercussions. The decision was used by the Centrão (Centrão) to try to isolate Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) and block his plans to run for the Planalto Palace in 2026. The interpretation among lawmakers is that only Tarcísio would be able to establish a dialogue with the Judiciary, even though he has accumulated recent friction by criticizing the Court, even mentioning"dictatorship" and "tyranny" in reference to the Supreme Court and Justice Alexandre de Moraes.

Tarcísio bets on the Centrão

Even after these clashes, Centrão leaders believe that Tarcísio has a better chance of building institutional bridges than any candidate from the Bolsonaro clan. According to this interpretation, family members would be denied access to the Supreme Court, while the São Paulo governor could still negotiate.

This reasoning reinforces the strategy of consolidating Tarcísio as a competitive candidate for 2026. In addition to the promised pardon, he would be a key player in redefining the composition of the Supreme Court, as the next president could appoint up to three justices. For allies, this shift in the political and legal landscape could be crucial to Bolsonaro's plans.