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Hamas massacres rival clans in Gaza, reigniting fears of civil war amid Trump talks

Estadão

Brazil

Tuesday, October 28


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Ceasefire Status and Analysis


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After two years operating in tunnels in the Gaza Strip , the terrorist group Hamas has returned to the streets of the Palestinian territory amid the ceasefire with Israel . But now, the enemy is different. Hamas seeks to eliminate dissident factions and impose its strength in Gaza.

The repression of the terrorist group has put in check the progress of the peace plan of the President of the of the United States , Donald Trump

, for the Palestinian territory, which requires the disarmament of Hamas and the establishment of a technocratic government.

Videos of the terrorist group executing members of rival factions in a public square went viral on social media. Hamas is targeting several militias in the Gaza Strip, such as the Abu Shabab, Doghmosh, and Al-Majaida clans, accusing them of collaborating with Israel, as well as other crimes such as smuggling, arms trafficking, extortion, and looting of humanitarian aid trucks.

The terrorist group's intention is to show that, even after a war that left the Palestinian territory in ruins, in terms of governability, number of terrorists and weapons.

"The executions of members of rival Hamas clans are intended to highlight to the world and to the citizens of Gaza that Hamas is the strongest group in the territory and has the power to deter groups that might have some cooperation with Israel," says Michael Milshtein, an expert in Palestinian Studies and Head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East Studies at Tel Aviv University.

For the analyst, Hamas's crackdown once again demonstrates that the terrorist group is unwilling to disarm and has a long-term vision for the future of governance in the Gaza Strip."Resistance is part of Hamas's identity; they won't disarm completely, and they're emphasizing this."

Hamas tries to show strength

After the partial withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip to the so-called "yellow line," the terrorist group has returned to rule parts of the Palestinian territory. Hamas has appointed new municipal authorities, is reopening highways, and officials have begun the process of cleaning up and removing debris.

The terrorist group also wanted to ensure it would face no internal opposition and launched sophisticated operations against rival clans that challenged its dominance. The speed and efficiency of these operations indicate that Hamas was already preparing these attacks during the ceasefire negotiations with Israel.

The terror group's Sahm (Arrow) and Rad'a (Deterrent) units, which oversee Gaza's internal security, have executed dozens of enemy militia members in the past two weeks, seizing weapons and cash.

In a post on the Telegram app, Hamas's Sahm unit said it would"show no mercy to agents who stole food from the people of Gaza."

For Milshtein, Hamas's operations highlight the terrorist group's superiority over other factions in Gaza."Hamas has crushed these clans in the territory it controls. There isn't even any fighting at the moment because all the factions are being annihilated."

After pressure from Trump for the terrorist group to stop public executions, Hamas chose to no longer publish photos and videos of its operations, but the Head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center assures that the repression continues.

Civil war in Gaza?

Rival Hamas clans operate throughout the Gaza Strip and do not operate uniformly. Some of these factions have Israeli military and financial support, according to experts, and have ties to Fatah, the Palestinian party that controls the Palestinian Authority (PA), and even to the Islamic State.

These militias have even openly challenged Hamas, attacking the terrorist group's bases and occupying areas of Palestinian territory. The al-Mansi clan operates in northern Gaza, the Doghmush group is based in Gaza City, and the Al-Majayda clan is based in Khan Younis.

The Abu Shabab clan, based in Rafah, has become notorious in recent months, as its leader has declared control over the city and attempted to position himself as an alternative to the Hamas leadership. The Israeli Army continues to deploy troops in Rafah, protecting the clan.

"These clans are made up of criminals and troublemakers. The Doghmush clan, which Hamas defeated in Gaza City, has ties to the Islamic State," assesses the Palestinian Studies expert."Other gangs like Abu Shabab live under Israeli protection in Rafah, so Gazans have a very negative image of them."

The climate of disorder has raised fears of a possible civil war , but the analyst rules it out due to Hamas's strength in Gaza."Hamas is stronger than everyone. If Israel withdraws from the areas it controls, like Rafah, Hamas will enter the city and do the same thing they did in Gaza City."

According to Gershon Baskin, founder of the Israel-Palestine Center for Research and Information and negotiator of the release agreement for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, Israel armed these clans and then withdrew from areas where it protected them. “Tel Aviv provided money and weapons to these clans so they could fight Hamas, and now they are alone. It’s a disgrace that Palestinians are killing Palestinians after two years of war.”

Milshtein points out that these groups do not serve as an alternative to Hamas and may have to go into exile in Israel, in a similar way to the exile of members of the South Lebanon Army, an Israeli-backed Lebanese militia that withdrew from Lebanese territory after the Israeli withdrawal in 2000.

"Israel will not break the ceasefire to help them at this time, and many clans have already declared their loyalty to Hamas, so either these factions accept exile, or Hamas will destroy them," the analyst highlights.

Problems for Trump's plan

The complex situation in the Gaza Strip highlights the difficulties of Donald Trump's peace plan . According to the guidelines, the terrorist group Hamas was supposed to disarm in the second phase, but negotiations are stalled due to the slow return of the bodies of Israeli hostages still held in Gaza.

The terrorist group has already signaled its openness to partial disarmament, maintaining weapons considered"defensive." According to data from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Hamas currently has around 20,000 terrorists, compared to 30,000 at the beginning of the war. Much of the tunnel network remains intact, and Hamas still has hundreds of rockets that could reach Israel.

"There is an idea floated by Qatar and Egypt that Hamas could give up rockets and drones, but keep other self-defense weapons," says Milshtein."The group could be pressured by Qatar to adopt this formula."

But the Hamas crackdown and recent fighting between the terrorist group and Israeli soldiers during the ceasefire have put the negotiations in jeopardy. The presence of international troops to stabilize the Gaza Strip is also uncertain, due to fears of possible clashes with Hamas terrorists in the territory.

US officials inspect the ceasefire from a building in the southern Israeli town of Kiryat Gat . The so-called Civil-Military Coordination Center is tasked with creating an international force that would enter Gaza. During a visit to Israel last week, US Vice President J.D. Vance signaled that Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and Indonesia could send troops to the Palestinian territory.

It's still unclear how this international mission would unfold and what role the troops would play in Gaza. The entry of Palestinian Authority soldiers being trained by Egypt and Jordan could also occur jointly.

"This international security force will not enter Gaza without a UN Security Council resolution defining the mandate of these troops," said Gershon Baskin of the Israel-Palestine Center for Research and Information."No country will send soldiers into Palestinian territory without knowing the orders regarding the use of weapons and against whom they are authorized to use these weapons."

According to Milshtein, the countries cited by Vance are hesitant to send troops because they know Hamas doesn't want to disarm."They don't want their soldiers killed in Gaza in clashes with Hamas or other organizations." The analyst predicts a smaller number of international troops in the territory."It's possible that small units will enter Gaza to inspect the plan, but it won't be thousands of soldiers."

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has already declared that he opposes the entry of Turkish troops into Palestinian territory and also does not want the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, even if revitalized.

US pressures Israel to maintain truce

Israel's approval of the next phases of the plan is also uncertain. Trump pressured Netanyahu to adhere to his Gaza guidelines after the Israeli bombing of the Hamas political office in Doha, Qatar, a US ally .

Experts interviewed by Estadão believe that the Netanyahu administration wants the war in Gaza to resume, especially without the presence of Israeli hostages alive in the Palestinian territory. But so far, the Trump administration has not allowed the conflict to resume, even after clashes with Hamas.

The visit of several American officials to Israel over the past two weeks has been dubbed “bibisitting,” a portmanteau of Netanyahu’s nickname and the word babysitting, intended to ensure that Israel would not break the ceasefire.

"JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Witkoff came to Israel to oversee Netanyahu and send the message that Trump will not tolerate a breach of the truce," Baskin notes."This is a personal assurance from President Trump to the mediators."

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