Washington’s new National Security Strategy outlines a major shift from previous US transatlantic policy, proposing a halt to NATO enlargement and warning that Europe is at risk of what it describes as “civilizational erasure.”

Unveiled Thursday night, the document says Washington’s Europe policy should prioritize “ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.”

No previous US strategy has used such language, signaling a freeze in NATO’s open-door policy at a moment when Ukraine is seeking a membership roadmap.

Bleak Assessment of Europe

The document argues that Europe’s problems go beyond low defense budgets and slow economic growth, warning that “Europe’s real problems are even deeper.”

It says the continent is undergoing demographic, political, and cultural decline, claiming that Europe’s economic stagnation is “eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure.”

The strategy lists a series of threats the administration says are transforming Europe:

• “Activities of the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty”
• “Migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife”
• “Censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition”
• “Cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence”

The document warns: “Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less.”

It also suggests that migration will reshape NATO itself, saying that “within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European.”

Ukraine, Russia, Europe’s “lack of self-confidence”

On Russia’s war in Ukraine, the document argues that most European governments are out of step with their own populations.

It accuses several unnamed governments of holding “unrealistic expectations for the war,” despite being “unstable minority governments… many of which trample on basic principles of democracy to suppress opposition.”

The document claims “a large European majority wants peace,” but that this is not reflected in national policy due to “subversion of democratic processes.”

It states that resolving the war is now a core US interest.

“It is a core interest of the United States to negotiate an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine,” it states.

The administration links Europe’s difficulties directly to what it describes as a deeper loss of strategic confidence, saying: “This lack of self-confidence is most evident in Europe’s relationship with Russia.”

Despite the tough tone, the strategy stresses that Europe remains vital to US interests, declaring:

“We cannot afford to write Europe off – doing so would be self-defeating.”

The strategy comes as tensions rise between Washington and its European allies over Russia and Ukraine.

A transcript of a recent crisis call, allegedly between European leaders, obtained by Der Spiegel shows that mistrust might run deep among them.

In an intercepted conversation, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz accused the US of “playing games” with Europe and Ukraine, while French President Emmanuel Macron warned Washington could “betray Ukraine” on territorial issues.