Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Friday that Russia has massed a force of around 100,000 troops near the eastern city of Pokrovsk as it continues to advance.
“The enemy is massing there. Up to 100,000 troops, that's what we had this morning. In any case, they are preparing offensive actions,” the president told a group of media outlets.
Russian forces have captured small areas as Moscow presses kyiv for territorial concessions while facing stiff resistance from Ukrainian defenders, who continue to prevent further advance.
After months of fighting, Russian forces are systematically crossing the administrative border into Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine's second largest region, threatening to capture at least five villages.
Military analysts and Ukrainian army spokesmen differ in their assessment of how far the invading forces have progressed, with official bodies contradicting claims by the influential platform DeepState that two villages, Zaporizke and Novogeorgiivka, have been captured. The Russians, for their part, have published images of their conquests.
Relentless infantry assaults
Independent analysts and the military agree that Russia has amassed approximately 100,000 infantry troops in the neighboring Donetsk region, who are now trying to breach Ukrainian defenses with drone support.
Russian forces do not yet have a solid foothold in the region, but their small infantry groups continue to attack relentlessly, said Viktor Tregubov, spokesman for the Dnipro command of the Ukrainian troops.
Russian multi-unit units, typically consisting of five soldiers, often avoid direct combat and use tree cover during the day and anti-drone ponchos at night to avoid detection by Ukrainian drones.
Ukrainian forces rely heavily on kamikaze drones and occasional counterattacks to prevent major enemy breakthroughs. Fearing destruction caused by drones, Russian forces do not use tanks or armored vehicles in the area, relying instead on the numerical superiority of their infantry.
Limited gains for diplomatic pressure
DeepState analysts note that the Russian advances were not unexpected : fighting has been going on for months along an 80-kilometer stretch of the border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk, and numerous Russian infantry groups have been eliminated before or after crossing the region.
The depth of the Russian advances so far ranges from several hundred meters to several kilometers, along various sections of the border totaling 7 km. Ukrainian-controlled areas in Donetsk still protect much of Dnipropetrovsk.
These modest gains are likely intended to bolster Russia's narrative to kyiv's international partners, presenting Ukraine's defeat as inevitable in order to back its territorial demands and other terms that most Ukrainians reject as tantamount to surrender.
Donetsk remains the epicenter
Military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko of the Information Resistance Group argues that Russian momentum in Dnipropetrovsk is waning due to resource constraints, and that Russia is no longer able to advance in many parts of the area.
Further advances in Dnipropetrovsk could help Russia cut off key supply routes to the front line in the east, but analysts agree that Russia is currently focused on making further advances in the eastern region, where it seeks to capture the entire Donetsk region.
In particular, Moscow aims to launch a decisive battle for Pokrovsk, but faces fierce Ukrainian resistance there. The invasion forces also remain bogged down in the ruins of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk after prolonged sieges, unable to advance toward the key Ukrainian strongholds of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Increase in displaced persons
Russian attacks in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk have intensified the displacement of civilians, Olena Logvinenko of Caritas Ukraine, which runs a transit shelter in Pavlograd, 80 kilometers from the front line, told the EFE news agency.
Last week, the shelter provided temporary accommodation and basic support to 250 displaced civilians daily, many of them elderly or in poor health, on their way to safer areas.
The flow, which previously reached 400 people per day, has decreased slightly due to the opening of two additional shelters and Ukrainian counterattacks near Pokrovsk that halted the Russian advance toward Dobropillia.
Despite these efforts, the situation remains complicated, as the Russian offensive persists and the bombing of towns and cities in frontline areas continues daily, while Moscow ignores calls for a ceasefire from Ukraine and its international partners.
