Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Washington next Monday to meet with US President Donald Trump, who recently expressed confidence that a ceasefire in the Gaza war could soon be reached.
Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz also announced on Monday that an end to the war in Gaza was in sight. We are now nearing the conclusion of the operation in Gaza. At the same time, he reiterated Israel's goals, including the release of all hostages and the destruction of Hamas.
Could the war in Gaza really be over soon? And what will happen then? Middle East expert Reinhard Schulze explains.
Mr. Schulze, how likely is an imminent end to the Gaza war?
Whether the Israeli Defense Minister's words actually indicate concrete plans for a ceasefire remains open at this point. Israel Katz's statements are often influenced by domestic political interests. His expressed optimism could therefore also be interpreted as a signal to the Israeli public – an attempt to cushion the growing discontent over the ongoing war.
Israel's war aims – such as the release of the hostages and the destruction of Hamas – have not yet been achieved...
Here, too, various interpretations are possible. The announcement could be interpreted as meaning that the Israeli government is close to returning the hostages still in Gaza—both survivors and deceased—to Israel. On the other hand, Katz could be signaling that a ceasefire agreement could lead to the release of the remaining hostages.
Netanyahu is meeting with Trump next week. Could the two already be establishing a deal?
When Trump talks about an impending ceasefire agreement, only insiders really know whether there's anything concrete behind it. Trump hopes to resolve the deadlock in the Middle East with a deal. He will certainly want to capitalize on the momentum created by Iran's de facto defeat in the 12-Day War and attempt to portray himself as a peacemaker in Gaza as well.
Will he succeed?
That's questionable. We know from previous occasions that Trump's announcements aren't always followed by action. Whether Trump's talks with Netanyahu will actually lead to an announcement of a ceasefire is something even the US president probably doesn't yet know.
How defeated is Hamas in Gaza?
It can be assumed that Hamas only has a loose network of individually operating units and hardly any unified, strategically effective command. The state of Hamas's remaining civilian and military structures in Gaza is difficult to reliably determine. Hamas presents a different image abroad. There, the impression is created that it is still an intact political and military organization.
How good are the chances that Hamas will accept a ceasefire?
When it comes to implementing a ceasefire and its associated conditions, Hamas abroad will have to rely on the goodwill of the individual Hamas units in Gaza. These are operating increasingly autonomously, and central command is hardly enforceable anymore. Whether they will actually adhere to a ceasefire remains a big question mark.
What might a ceasefire or peace deal look like?
In the current unofficial negotiations between the various parties, the possibility of an Arab administration for Gaza is being explicitly considered. Specifically, the stationing of Egyptian and Saudi units to ensure security and order for a limited period is being discussed. Even a shared command structure between Israel and the Arab contingents is conceivable, both horizontally (i.e., geographically) and vertically (i.e., based on competence). Thus, Israel could claim control over the border regions in Gaza and the three established corridors, while the Arab units would be responsible for securing the remaining areas.
