Tensions have been high since a Thai soldier lost his leg in a landmine explosion in a disputed border area on Wednesday, July 23, which Thailand blamed on Cambodia. The incident led to a sharp deterioration in diplomatic relations, with Thailand recalling its ambassador from Phnom Penh and expelling a Cambodian diplomat. All border crossings were closed, halting the movement of tourists, traders and even humanitarian exceptions, except for cases such as medical care or students, according to the Cambodian Foreign Ministry. The Guardian .

On Thursday morning, heavy clashes broke out in the area of Ta Moan Thom temple, which both countries claim as their territory. The Thai military said Cambodian troops opened fire and also used BM-21 rocket launchers, hitting civilian areas including a hospital and a gas station in Thailand's Surin province, writes CNN The result was at least 11 dead Thai civilians, including an eight-year-old boy, and 24 injured, he added. The New York Times Cambodia, on the other hand, says its troops acted in self-defense after an “unprovoked attack” by Thai forces, who allegedly violated an agreement to de-escalate tensions. The Cambodian Defense Ministry condemned the “reckless and brutal Thai aggression” and said Thai F-16 fighter jets dropped bombs on a road in Preah Vihear province.

Thailand deployed F-16 fighters

Thailand deployed its air force, which military sources said destroyed two Cambodian military targets. Cambodia said its air defenses shot down one Thai F-16 fighter jet, although Thailand did not confirm this information. The fighting spread to six locations along the 817-kilometer border, which is partly ill-defined due to inaccurate maps from the French colonial era of Cambodia, Al Jazeera reports.

The fighting has forced the evacuation of some 40,000 Thai civilians from 86 villages in Surin, Sisaket and Ubon Ratchathani provinces. People are fleeing to makeshift shelters built of concrete and reinforced with tires. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet has urged residents to remain calm and not panic, while his father, the influential former prime minister Hun Sen, has accused Thailand of shelling two Cambodian provinces.

Political consequences of the conflict

The conflict has serious political implications, especially in Thailand, where Prime Minister Pham Binh Minh is facing suspension from office over a leaked phone call with Hun Sen on June 15. In the call, she described the Thai military as “a party that wants to look good,” sparking a wave of criticism and nationalist protests in Bangkok. Shinawatra, who comes from a powerful political dynasty, is accused of undermining national interests and faces possible impeachment, CNN reports.

Hun Sen, who ruled Cambodia with a heavy hand for nearly 40 years, stepped down in 2023, handing power to his son Hun Manet. He remains a prominent political figure, currently serving as the president of the Senate. His personal ties to Thailand are also important, with Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Thai prime minister and Paetongtarn's father, a long-time ally.

Hun Manet has requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to stop “Thai aggression” and plans to resubmit the dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). However, Thailand rejects the ICJ’s jurisdiction and insists on a bilateral solution through the Joint Boundary Commission (JBC), which has yet to yield results.

The conflict is likely to escalate further

Relations between Thailand and Cambodia have deteriorated dramatically in recent weeks, and analysts say the conflict between the two Southeast Asian neighbors is likely to escalate further. As political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok told CNN, the conflict is"likely to get worse before it gets better."

According to him,"further confrontations, clashes, escalation" can be expected in the coming days because "both sides have accumulated great tension."

According to Pongsudhirak, the Thai government is currently"very weak and lacks unity," which he says Cambodia is "taking advantage of to deepen internal divisions in Thailand."

The analyst also claims that the conflict also has a personal dimension: "This is a family vendetta... the Shinawatra family is now very angry with Hun Sen. It is no longer just about Thai-Cambodian relations, but also about damaging the Shinawatra family."

The situation also has implications for the wider region. Pongsudhirak points out that the border conflict is contributing to an imbalance within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). This regional bloc, whose members include Thailand and Cambodia as well as Myanmar, Vietnam and Indonesia, has faced a number of challenges in recent years - from the civil war in Myanmar to various territorial disputes and geopolitical tensions.

“In addition to the civil war in Myanmar, which ASEAN has failed to resolve, we now have an open military confrontation between Thailand and Cambodia,” Pongsudhirak said. “This makes ASEAN a weak player.”

The conflict is isolated to the border provinces

Acting Thai Prime Minister Phumtham Vejjajaja commented on armed clashes with Cambodia that broke out overnight on the border on Thursday morning. According to him, the conflict is limited to the border area, has not spread to other provinces and neither side has declared war. TASR reports this according to Reuters.

Vechajachay said Cambodia had attacked Thai territory with heavy weapons, without firing at a specific target. This is why, according to him, there were civilian casualties. Thailand reported 11 civilian casualties and one dead soldier this morning. The interim prime minister also refused to negotiate with Cambodia until its army stops the attacks.