Last Wednesday, Putin presented the Trump administration with a proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine, which allegedly demands major territorial concessions from Kiev in exchange for an end to the war. While Ukraine lost its biggest bargaining chip in March – Kursk, the Russian region it invaded in August 2024 – there is little will in Kiev to cede both occupied and unconquered land to Russia.

Swapping"land for peace" would effectively mean a violent Russian annexation of sovereign Ukrainian territory, according to Sky News. Trump said he hopes to return"main territory" to Ukraine, although it is not clear what Putin would agree to, the portal adds.

Trump said on Monday that both Moscow and Kiev would have to cede ground to end the war and that a meeting with Putin on Friday in Alaska will immediately show him whether the Russian leader is willing to make a deal.

What does Russia want?

Moscow, at least to begin with, wants to encircle Donbas . The Eastern region consists of two areas, Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia controls about 46,579 square kilometers or 88% of Donbas, of which, according to Reuters:

• 75% of Donetsk and
• all of Luhansk.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on Tuesday that Putin wants to negotiate the remaining 30% of Donetsk – about 6,500 km² or 25% of the territory according to ISW) that is still under Kiev's control, and essentially all of Donbas. He, however, said that Kyiv would reject it.

- We cannot leave Donbass... For the Russians, it is a springboard for future new offensives - said Zelensky, adding that this already happened after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Russia annexed Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson back in September 2022, following referendums illegal under international law and not fully controlled.

Putin also wants the removal of American sanctions . The Polish portal"Onet" states that Witkoff proposed to Putin de facto recognition of "new territories" and the lifting of sanctions.

What does Ukraine want?

According to Politico, there are several key strategic interests that Ukraine wants to defend in any negotiations with Russia.

• Permanent ceasefire before any territorial exchanges: Zelensky said that Putin,"if Ukrainian forces leave the Donbass today... in a few years will have an open road to the regions of Zaporozhye, Kharkiv and Dnieper".
• Russia must pay estimates of the destruction in Ukraine range from 500 billion-trillion dollars (US trillion).
• Security guarantees: Ukraine sees NATO and EU membership as the only long-term way to prevent another Russian attack. But Trump ruled out membership in NATO, while Russia wants the alliance to commit to never accepting Ukraine. Kiev also rejects Moscow's demands to reduce its 900,000 active-duty military - Europe's largest after Russia's - and for allies to stop sending it weapons.
• Return of Ukrainian children and prisoners of war: Russia has taken nearly 20,000 Ukrainian children and so far 1,453 have been returned. Since the start of Trump's mediation, the two sides have exchanged more than 2,000 prisoners, but thousands remain in captivity.
• Sustaining sanctions pressure: it is believed that the Russian economy is finally beginning to feel the effects of Western sanctions. According to analyst Timothy Ash, the war has cost Moscow two trillion dollars so far.

What does Russia offer?

• Ceasefire: Putin reportedly proposed that he would agree to a full ceasefire if Ukraine withdrew its forces from the rest of the eastern region, which would Russia control Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as the Crimea peninsula, which was illegally annexed in 2014. According to Bild, the Russian side proposed only a"sectoral ceasefire", but not a halt to the offensive along the front.
• Territories: according to the"Wall Street Journal" (WSJ) Ukraine could "get" small parts of the border areas occupied by Russia in the areas of Sumi and Kharkiv (about 400 km² in both regions). It is also possible that Russia will agree to withdraw from the parts of the Kherson region it controls, according to"Politik". Russia also controls small parts of the Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
• Guarantees: according to the WSJ, Putin said as part of the proposal that his government would pass a law pledging not to attack Ukraine or Europe, a claim met with deep skepticism by European officials.

What wasn't mentioned?

• Other annexed regions: according to "Bild", Russia does not deviate from its maximum demand to fully control all five Ukrainian regions - in addition to Donetsk and Luhansk there are also Zaporozhye, Kherson and Crimea.
• Nuclear plant in Zaporozhye: the largest nuclear power plant in Europe could be the topic of these or future negotiations. Matthew Saville, director of military science at the RUSI Institute, told Sky News that the Ukrainians could"probably" return the plant, but that Russia would likely insist on maintaining land access to Crimea. This would mean the cities of Mariupol and Melitopol remain in Russian hands.
• Security guarantees for Ukraine: Zelensky said US-led diplomatic discussions did not touch on security guarantees to Kiev to prevent future Russian aggression.
• European participation: meeting formats currently under consideration do not include European participation. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said recently that Europe should hold its own summit with Russia.

What next?

A member of the Russian State Duma, Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev, said recently that"under no circumstances" should talks between Putin and Trump end the war in Ukraine.

Sobolev said that Russia is seeking control over Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson and that Russian forces will create"security zones" in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Nikolaev and Odesa regions, according to ISW.

If Russia gets the rest of Donbas as part of the negotiations - including the surrender of some fortress-cities like Kramatorsk and Slovyansk - many believe that Putin"would come back for the rest of Ukraine, possibly when Trump's term expires", Sky News reports.