The eyes of the world—especially those of Ukraine and Europe—will be fixed this Friday on the summit that the presidents of the United States, Donald Trump, and Russia, Vladimir Putin, will hold at the Elmendorf-Richardson military base, outside Anchorage, on the coast of Alaska. The White House, eager to lower expectations, has described the meeting as a mere first contact, in which decisions will be left for later, at a possible summit between Putin and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky. But the European governments and kyiv, absent from the tête-à-tête, are holding their breath. The fear is that, despite the promises from Washington, the Russian president will end up winning the American over. The conversation will not remain a mere exchange of views and will lay the groundwork for a bleak future for Ukraine without Ukraine.
Concern has been reinforced by the Kremlin's statements and Russian advances on the front lines ahead of the meeting. A Foreign Ministry spokesperson has emphasized recently that Moscow remains unmoved: it is demanding the withdrawal from all the Ukrainian provinces it claims as its own—even from areas under Kiev's control—as well as the permanent blockade of the attacked country's access to NATO and the lifting of Western sanctions on Russia.
Trump, meanwhile, reiterates that the real negotiation will take place, if Friday's talks are successful, in the possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky. After warning the Russian of"serious consequences" if he doesn't see progress in the talks, the American even hinted at the possibility of extending the meeting in Alaska to include the Ukrainian, in statements to Fox radio:"Depending on what happens, I will call Zelensky and we will bring him to where we are going to meet... the easiest thing would be to stay in Alaska." But he also clarified that the meeting would discuss territorial division: "I don't want to use the expression 'dividing things up,' but to a certain extent, it's not a bad phrase."
In that case, according to the Republican, it would be Putin and Zelensky who would have to negotiate the terms of a peace agreement. But he insisted that closing a deal will have to involve the division of territories."There will be give and take over borders, land, etc. The second summit is going to be very, very, very important," he told Fox Radio. The American also acknowledged the possibility that Friday's summit in Alaska could end in nothing, giving him a percentage:"25%."
Preparations for the meeting continue at the military base and in Anchorage. Alaska's largest city—290,000 inhabitants in the least densely populated US state—in the midst of the tourist season and with hotels overflowing, could not have imagined a week ago that its name could be associated in the history books with the future of the war in Ukraine. The two leaders are scheduled to arrive in Alaska mid-morning local time and participate in a welcome ceremony before beginning their summit at 11:30 a.m. (9:30 p.m. Spanish time, 3:30 p.m. in Washington). The two will speak privately, accompanied only by their translators, before including their respective teams in the meeting. Trump is expected to hold a press conference after the talks, although it is unclear whether Putin will also participate.
The fact that the meeting is taking place—and where it will take place—is already a goal for Putin. The photo of the two will end nearly four years of international isolation for the Russian leader, who has yet to agree to the ceasefire that was required as a precondition. The meeting is taking place on US soil, where—except for visits to the UN in New York—Putin has not set foot since 2007, when George W. Bush invited him to an informal meeting at his private summer residence in Kennebunkport, Massachusetts.
Alaska, moreover, is not just any territory: Moscow sold it to Washington in 1867 for $7.2 million. The symbolism doesn't end there: it is the state furthest from Europe—with the exception of Hawaii.
“The mere holding of this meeting is already beneficial for Russia, and it does nothing for Ukraine. Putin feels legitimized without any concessions in return. Ukraine is under pressure to make concessions even before any negotiations can begin in Alaska,” believes Olga Tokariuk of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
Exchange of territories
Since the announcement of the summit in Alaska, the Republican has not provided details about the alleged territory exchange between the two warring countries, beyond assuring that it will be"for the good of Ukraine." But Putin wants all four provinces he has partially occupied since February 2022, when he launched the full-scale invasion of his neighbor. His troops fully control Luhansk province, 70% of Donetsk province, and about half of Zaporizhia and Kherson provinces.
Zelensky categorically rejects any territorial concession and points out that he has no authority to grant it: his Constitution stipulates that such a step would have to be approved in a referendum, which would surely fail. Although the vast majority of the exhausted and bleeding Ukrainian population supports a ceasefire and an end to the war, they also refuse to hand over to their aggressor territories whose defense has cost tens of thousands of lives and resources. Voluntarily handing over the cities in this industrial and mineral-rich area would also open the door to another invasion in the future: between Russian troops and kyiv there would be only a vast plain. This would be disastrous if, in addition, as Putin intends, the territorial concession is not accompanied by security guarantees.
In Anchorage, Putin will have to make some concessions, argues Jana Kobzova, co-director of the European Advocacy Center at the Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). Otherwise, he risks unleashing the wrath of his volatile counterpart and ultimately imposing the sanctions and tariffs he has been threatening for months without ever implementing. The Russian, she explains,"will have to respond in some way to Trump's desire to become the architect of peace between Russia and Ukraine. But at the same time, he currently has the advantage on the battlefield, so if things don't go his way through diplomatic channels, he can escalate the fighting."
The most favorable outcome for Russia, in this expert's opinion, could be the"neutralization" of the US in the conflict: that Washington withdraw from the peace negotiations and stop sending weapons to kyiv. To achieve this, Putin could offer in Anchorage some of the carrots he knows Trump likes most: trade agreements, joint energy development agreements, or even agreements on Arctic resources, an area of particular interest to a US president who is relentless in his quest to seize control of Greenland. On the eve of the meeting, the Kremlin alluded to the possibility of negotiations on nuclear arms control.
The best possible outcome for Ukraine, according to Tohariuk, would be a lack of agreement between Putin and Trump on Alaska. “There should be no pressure on kyiv to cede territory. An even better outcome would be for Trump to announce sanctions against Russia, but so far those threats have not materialized at any point,” he continues.
Europeans are keeping their fingers crossed after a week of high-flying diplomacy to persuade Trump of the need to support Ukraine. The allies, who met with Trump by videoconference on Wednesday, would like genuine peace talks that also include Ukraine.
In any case, the American needs to announce some kind of outcome from a meeting in which much of his diplomatic capital is at stake... and his ultimate goal: that Nobel Peace Prize, for which the White House is campaigning ever more intensely."Trump has based his presidency on constant activity to demonstrate power. He needs headlines coming out of Alaska, and a promise that this will continue on the path to peace. The how and the what are of far less interest to him than to Putin, kyiv, and the Europeans. Trump is playing at being a man of action; Putin, at building empires," concludes Jim O'Brien of the ECFR.
