interview

What is Elon Musk's purpose in founding his party? While he may not become US president, he could harm Trump in the midterm elections, says strategy consultant van de Laar on tagesschau24.

tagesschau24 : Elon Musk wants to found his own party in one of the most stable two-party systems in the world. What is known so far about his political agenda and goals?

Julius van de Laar : First of all, that Musk is trying to put pressure on Donald Trump, or at least wants to regain his relevance. Since he's no longer part of DOGE and, accordingly, the US government, he's essentially fallen out with Trump. In my opinion, he's also using the"Big Beautiful Bill" to get attention again and thus get back into the spotlight.

"A long and difficult undertaking": Julius van de Laar, strategy consultant, on Musk's founding of the party tagesschau24, July 6, 2025, 1:00 PM

Signal to Trump: Narrow majorities in danger

tagesschau24 : Does that mean this is more about self-promotion than a serious political initiative?

van de Laar : I think it's at least partly about regaining relevance and also retaining some power. What happened? With the"Big Beautiful Bill," not only did the national debt increase by around four trillion dollars. Above all, it also eliminated subsidies for e-mobility. This is, of course, also a massive blow to Tesla.

Now, of course, Trump could say,"Next, we'll go after SpaceX, Musk's space company." I think with this step of forming a third party, Musk could at least signal to Trump: Things could get uncomfortable, and I could potentially stir up sentiment against your razor-thin majorities in Congress.

Perhaps this is a warning to Trump not to go any further and not to put more political and economic pressure on Elon Musk.

"In this system, even Musk's billions would not be enough"

tagesschau24 : You know the US election campaign firsthand: Musk, it must be said, brings with him a lot of money, attention, and reach – but no political experience. How realistic is it that he can actually influence the political course with a new party?

van de Laar : If we look at history, there have always been candidates who have tried to launch a third-party gambit or even instigate an entire movement to break up the two-party system. Jill Stein tried it in 2016, for example, during the Trump-Hillary Clinton campaign, where some argue that Stein's efforts with the Greens ultimately cost Clinton the election.

There's another prominent example from 1992: Back then, Bill Clinton won the election against George H. Bush, the father of George W. Bush. Why? Because a third-party candidate, also a billionaire—Ross Perot—ran the job. While he received 19 percent of the vote, he didn't receive a single electoral vote.

I think that simply shows where the problem lies: On the one hand, the electoral system in the US is ancient—and some even call it undemocratic. Because if you get 19 percent of the votes across the country and still don't get a single electoral vote, then that obviously has some traits of a system for excluding third parties.

But that's still the system Musk would have to run in. I think it just shows how difficult it is to really work your way into it. And remember: you need 270 electoral votes to become president. That's a really, really long way. Even Musk's billions wouldn't be enough.

Musk needs a suitable candidate

tagesschau24 : Above all, you have to mobilize the masses. And unlike the elections you just described, it's certainly a novelty that Musk controls X – arguably one of the most important social networks for political communication. What strategic advantages does this give him, especially with regard to mobilization and opinion-forming?

Van de Laar : Of course, with X, he has a mouthpiece to directly address millions of people. We saw that in 2016: When Trump's ratings suddenly skyrocketed, X, then still Twitter, played a key role in getting his message out.

Now, of course, there's a difference: Trump used the medium back then to push himself into the spotlight. Musk couldn't do that, because he himself can't run for office because he wasn't born in the United States—a prerequisite for running for president in the US. Musk, however, was born in South Africa. This means he wouldn't just be founding a new party, he would also need his own presidential candidate to support.

Musk himself is extremely unpopular. You only have to look at how drastically he's lost support in the polls in recent months. Currently, just 36 percent say they think positively of him. I think that's an important aspect: it's difficult to push your candidacy forward in a country where you can't run for office.

"The desire for something new is definitely there"

tagesschau24 : Who exactly is Elon Musk addressing? Are they traditional conservative voters? Disappointed Trump supporters? Or could he also reach entirely different voter groups who perhaps haven't felt represented by any party so far?

van de Laar : I think it's more the latter group: people who don't feel represented. You can always look at the polls in the US. Many eligible voters say,"Two parties aren't enough for me; I usually choose the lesser of two evils."

At least that's what we heard a lot during the last election campaign, so the desire for something new is definitely there. But I think it's often the case that people naturally still want something better, or at least another choice. The likelihood that many Republicans or Democrats will actually choose something new is slim, though.

Founding a party is always fraught with major challenges. Looking at history, I think it's almost impossible for it to be truly successful.

Musk millions for the midterms to disrupt Trump's majorities?

tagesschau24 : What impact could the party's founding have on the political balance in the US in the medium term? Especially with a view to the midterm elections next year and the 2028 presidential election.

van de Laar : Ultimately, the US is constantly and constantly in an election campaign. It's called a"permanent campaign." The midterm elections will take place in November 2026. And Trump's majority, as we just saw with his tax and spending bill, is razor-thin.

Now Musk could come along and say he wants to exert pressure. Then he could perhaps support two Senate candidates who would always vote against Trump from now on. Or he could pick ten candidates in the House of Representatives and support them with millions of dollars, which would be a piece of cake for him, giving them the freedom to turn away from Trump. I think that's a much more effective approach.

Trump will likely do a lot to ensure he retains the majority in the House of Representatives, which would be unusual. I think there have only been about three times in the last 40 years that the party in power has retained the majority in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. That means there's a lot at stake.

It would require an enormous effort. Power dynamics would have to be disrupted. But I believe that if Musk were to go down this path, the fight would be tough.