A ceasefire, a warning sign, a public image move, a partial or full embargo - none of these options make a difference if Israel loses its ally, perhaps its most significant in Europe. Germany's decision today (Friday) to impose a partial arms embargo on Israel is not surprising given the international pressure in light of the images coming out of Gaza - but the very fact that Berlin, one of Israel's greatest friends on the continent, chose to take the step - should light a glaring warning sign in Jerusalem. These are the implications and meanings of the move, the weapons that will stop arriving and those that will still be transferred.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with Chancellor Friedrich Merz this evening, and according to his office,"expressed his disappointment with his decision to impose an arms embargo on Israel." He said,"Instead of supporting Israel's just war against Hamas, which carried out the most terrible attack against the Jewish people since the Holocaust, Germany is rewarding Hamas's terrorism by imposing an arms embargo on Israel."

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Netanyahu and March. A warning sign is set to go up in Jerusalem, which needs Berlin by its side (Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images, IDF Spokesperson, Abir Sultan /Pool via AP)

A political source said that the conversation between Netanyahu and Martz was very charged. According to him, the prime minister was"disappointed that a country like Germany made such statements." In the shadow of international criticism of the cabinet's decision to occupy Gaza, Netanyahu told Martz that"Israel's goal is not to take control of Gaza, but to liberate Gaza from Hamas and enable the establishment of a peaceful government there." Defense Minister Yisrael Katz also attacked: "Countries in the world that condemn and threaten sanctions will not let up on us. Gone are the days when Jews did not defend themselves."

Half a million pills, and essential components

A few hours after the cabinet decision on the occupation of Gaza, Chancellor Meretz announced in a dramatic statement that"the German government will not approve until further notice any export of military equipment to Israel that could be used in the Gaza Strip." Meretz did say that Israel "has the right to defend itself against Hamas terrorism," and made it clear that "Hamas must not have any role in the future of Gaza" - but at the same time he said that he was "very concerned about the situation of the civilian population in Gaza."

Germany is one of Israel’s main arms suppliers. In 2023 alone, it supplied Israel with 326.5 million euros ($353.7 million) worth of equipment and weapons – including thousands of tank shells, components for air defense systems and communications equipment. 3,000 mobile anti-tank weapons and half a million rounds for automatic or semi-automatic weapons were also included in the deals.

Most German export licenses to Israel were granted for technology for the development, maintenance, assembly, and repair of weapons systems, as well as for military vehicles – essential components for maintaining the IDF's operational capability.

As early as September 2024, Reuters reported a slowdown in the pace of arms exports from Germany – due, among other things, to legal challenges and also to political opposition from former Foreign Minister Annalena Barbok of the Green Party, who led a problematic line towards Israel.

However, in October 2024, figures from the German Foreign Ministry indicated that military exports worth around $100 million had finally been approved in the previous three months, including spare parts for tanks – after efforts by Merz, then the opposition leader, to persuade the government to resume arms supplies. Now, as chancellor, he is declaring an embargo.

Pro-Palestinian demonstration in Germany. Internal pressure is only increasing (Photo: Reuters/REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch)

Commentators involved in Israeli-German relations noted today that there have been similar statements from Berlin in the past, and the question now is to what extent the latest decision will be implemented in practice."They can delay export licenses and then release them gradually," said one commentator, who added that"Germany is a big supporter of Israel, and there are significant deals such as the sale of the Arrow system from Israel to Germany that continue to move forward."

A former senior official involved in relations between the countries assessed that the Chancellor's statement was a kind of "cover-up" in the face of public opinion in Germany and that it would not necessarily translate into a real embargo. Alongside all of this, all commentators agree - this is a glaring warning sign regarding the continuation of relations.

Israel today depends on Germany as its most significant ally in Europe – the one that separates it from Israel’s suspension from the Horizon Europe program – the world’s largest research and development program for scientific and industrial cooperation. The suspension has been blocked so far by Germany and Italy. If Germany were to reinstate it, Israel would find itself in a very difficult situation, one that would signal the beginning of a significant wave of sanctions from the European Union. Therefore, Israel must go above and beyond to please the Germans.

He did not consult with his partners: "We were surprised"

Meretz's decision came amid growing pressure in Germany to reconsider arms supplies to Israel, in light of reports of rising civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip and restrictions on access to humanitarian aid. According to reports in Germany, before making the decision, the Chancellor did not consult with members of the Christian Social Party in Bavaria, which shares power with Meretz's party.

"They were not involved in the decision and were surprised by it," sources told Bild. According to other sources, Meretz had been grappling with the decision in recent days, but recent developments have dramatically increased the pressure on him.

In Berlin (Photo: AP Photo/ Ebrahim Noroozi)

"Under the current circumstances, the German government will not approve until further notice the export of military equipment that could be used in the Gaza Strip," Meretz said in a statement to the press today. He emphasized that Israel's military actions, approved by the cabinet, make it difficult to achieve goals such as the release of the hostages and the disarmament of Hamas. However, the decision does not include a full embargo, and allows the continued export of systems not related to the Gaza campaign, such as air defense systems and naval equipment.

In his statement, Meretz expressed deep concern about the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip, and called on the Israeli government to allow"full access to aid shipments, including for UN organizations and non-governmental organizations." He added that "the Israeli government bears greater responsibility than ever for providing for the needs of the civilian population." The Chancellor also warned Israel against steps that could lead to the annexation of Judea and Samaria, and stressed that Germany is closely monitoring developments in the region.

This afternoon, German Ambassador to Israel Steffen Seibert shared on his X-network account:"Chancellor Merz explains why Germany, until further notice, will not approve the export of weapons to Israel that could be used in Gaza. Our priorities: the release of the hostages, a ceasefire, humanitarian aid and the absence of a future role for Hamas. It is unclear how increased military activity will help achieve them."