ISLAMABAD: The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party may have secured a comfortable simple majority in the National Assembly after sweeping Sunday’s by-elections, but it is unlikely to part ways with its main coalition partner, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), in the center as both parties still need each other for governance and legislation, political experts said on Monday.
Unofficial results from the Election Commission of Pakistan showed the PML-N and allies won from 12 of the 13 national and provincial constituencies that went to polls in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, including all six seats in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament.
Most of the seats had fallen vacant after disqualification of lawmakers from jailed former prime minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) over violent protests in May 2023. The PTI, which boycotted the contest, alleged irregularities in the by-elections. The government has denied it.
According to unofficial results, PM Shehbaz Sharif’s party and allies now have 170 seats in the National Assembly, one more than 169 required for a simple majority in the house of 338 members, with analysts saying the results undoubtedly strengthen the PML-N’s confidence but do not fundamentally alter the coalition dynamics.
“While the PML-N now commands the National Assembly with its simple majority, the party will still need the PPP, especially in the Senate where crucial legislation requires broader support,” said Ahmad Bilal Mahboob, president of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT).
According to the Senate website, the PPP holds the largest share in the 96-member upper house of parliament with 26 seats, followed by the PML-N with 20, and the PTI with 14 seats.
Mahboob said it would be “wise” for the ruling party to keep the PPP on-board, not only to avoid pushing former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari’s party toward the opposition, but also to ensure votes for any future constitutional amendments.
The coalition government, led by Sharif, has already passed two constitutional amendments since taking over the country after the national election in Feb. last year.
Mahboob called the peaceful conduct of the by-elections despite the PTI’s boycott an “achievement,” though he said the low voter turnout even in major urban centers like Lahore should concern the government.
Sharif, however, described the results as an expression of public confidence in his party.
“The people expressed their confidence in the PML-N’s mission of development, stability and public welfare, for which [we] are grateful,” he said on X.
Fahd Hussain, a prominent political commentator, agreed with Mahboob, saying the PML-N’s victory does not diminish the PPP’s “utility.”
“The PML-N’s majority will give it extra legislative confidence, but it does not diminish the PPP’s utility because all critical legislation to amend the constitution will require the PPP’s support,” he said.
“Nothing fundamental changes for now.”
Political analyst and author Nasim Zehra said the numbers alone cannot redefine the political reality of the current power arrangement, which she described as a setup shaped by a “consensus between the establishment, the PML-N, and the PPP.”
“The prime minister has consistently operated through a conciliatory approach toward the PPP, and that this political alignment is seen as essential for national stability and policy continuity from foreign affairs and security to governance and economic management,” she told Arab News.
“Both parties understand the strategic necessity of staying together as distance between them could open political space for the PTI to find potential allies.”
Zehra said while unexpected shifts in politics are always possible, it appears unlikely that the government would alter the “cooperative framework” guiding its current direction.
