It's THE first major test of the mood for the CDU/SPD coalition at the federal level: the local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW, almost 14 million eligible voters). And the test turned out significantly different for the CDU and SPD:

▶︎ Clear winner: According to forecasts, the CDU has won the local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: It received 34 percent nationwide! This stabilizes compared to 2020 (34.2 percent).

▶︎ Clear winner: The AfD is reaching 16 to 17 percent! This would at least triple its nationwide result – last time it achieved 5.1 percent! The far-right group has thus also made landfall in the West.

▶︎ Loser : the SPD! The party is sinking even further in its former heartland: to around 22 percent! By the last local elections in 2020, the SPD had already almost halved its share: from 42 percent in 1994 to 24 percent. The exciting question of the evening now in its"heartland": Can the former people's party still hold on to the 20 percent.

▶︎ Major shrinkage: The Greens! They plummeted from 20 to around 11 percent. The difference with the SPD: They only had a brief peak in 2020 (climbing from 11 to 20 percent). Now: they've plummeted back to their core electorate—as they did at the federal level.

Unusually for a local election, prominent figures from both governing parties were constantly on the campaign trail.

Although they are"only" local elections, the NRW election is considered a nationwide important mood test: It is the first election after the early federal elections in winter - and for the black-red coalition of Chancellor Friedrich Merz (69, CDU), who, like a large part of the CDU federal celebrities, comes from NRW (including parliamentary group leader Spahn, party general Linnemann).

The SPD's performance is considered particularly important in Berlin for the balance of power within the coalition. For SPD co-leader and Social Affairs Minister Bärbel Bas (57) from Duisburg, in particular, it's about power within the party and the federal government.

NRW is also considered a test case for Germany:

▶︎ The majority of municipalities in North Rhine-Westphalia are on the verge of bankruptcy. Of the 427 cities and municipalities, only 16 were able to achieve balanced budgets by 2024.

▶︎ And the economy is increasingly sending out an SOS: In the first half of 2025, 3,190 companies filed for insolvency (an increase of 17.2 percent). In August, there were more than 800,000 unemployed in North Rhine-Westphalia.