At 10:00 PM the day before yesterday, Monday, I was a guest on Extra News Channel with the distinguished journalist Shady Shash, who asked me a direct question about the most likely scenario shortly after the Iranian attack on the Qatari Al-Udeid base in response to the Israeli-American aggression since June 13th.

Of course, the intervention took place a few hours before the ceasefire was announced between the two sides.

Most assessments prior to this ceasefire announcement warned and feared that the entire region would slide into a major regional conflict. Some even feared the outbreak of World War III!

In my intervention, I clearly stated that, barring a miracle, and contrary to most estimates and predictions, matters will largely calm down, not escalate.

I also said that each party will stop and be satisfied with what it has achieved, and claim to its audience and public opinion that it is the one who won.

What I said is that all the evidence in the past few days was leading to a scenario of calm, not escalation.

Israel, for example, launched its aggression against Iran on June 13th, and achieved significant successes, such as destroying a large portion of Iran's air defense systems, making most of Iran's airspace open to Israeli fighter jets. As a result, Israel was able to bomb and target numerous Iranian missile and drone depots, and assassinate several senior Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard commanders, as well as senior nuclear program scientists, the last of whom was killed yesterday morning, minutes before the ceasefire went into effect.

In contrast, Iran has largely succeeded in inflicting pain on Israel, with its missiles reaching deep into the heart of Israel's cities and key installations despite numerous American, European, and Israeli air defense systems across much of the region. This is a matter that requires further study, scrutiny, and conclusions drawn.

The US officially entered the war alongside Israel, launching a strike with deep-penetrating bombs on the three Iranian nuclear facilities in Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow. US President Donald Trump announced that the operation completely destroyed the nuclear program, while Iran announced that all these facilities had been evacuated of all nuclear materials before the strike. Thus, each side claims that it achieved its goal: America bombed and Iran responded!

Iran responded to the US operation by attacking the US base in Al Udeid, Qatar. Most Arab countries condemned and objected to the Iranian strike, and Tehran responded by saying that since the US had attacked it from this base, it was only natural for it to attack it.

Trump said that Iran had informed us and Qatar of the strike in advance, and therefore the strike was weak. It launched 14 missiles, 13 of which were shot down, and the last one landed in a safe location, and no one was hurt!

The important development is that the Iranians have said publicly and privately that they are prepared for a settlement, particularly when they said: Our response to Israel and America was painful, and if Israel stops its aggression, we will stop. The last statement was a clear declaration of their desire to stop the fighting so that it does not develop into the goal of toppling the regime.

President Trump said, in his own peculiar way:"I thank Iran for notifying us early of the strike. Perhaps Iran can now move forward toward peace and harmony in the region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to follow suit."

The Russians have said they will not provide weapons to Iran and are prepared to mediate. China is content with expressions of condemnation and calls for calm, because it is preoccupied with economic progress, not war.

Israel declares and feels it has achieved most of its declared objectives, particularly the destruction of the nuclear program, or at least delaying it for years, and the destruction of a large portion of Iran's air defense systems. Tehran believes that as long as the regime does not fall and as long as it can resume the nuclear program, it has won.

For all of the above - and the episode is available on YouTube - I said that a calm scenario is closer to escalation.

I also believe that the 12-day war was not a farce—except perhaps in its final hours—and this is a topic that requires further discussion. As for the question: Who won and who lost? This will only be resolved when the political results of the war become apparent and materialize on the ground. Consequently, each side will emerge and say: We won!