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NATO does not view the entry of Russian drones into Polish airspace as an attack, an alliance source told Reuters on Wednesday morning. If it did view the incident as an attack on an Alliance member, then it would have to react collectively, under Article 5, even using armed force against Russia to restore and maintain security in the North Atlantic area. In accordance with Article 5, the Contracting Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all […] and, consequently, they agree that, in the event of such an armed attack, each of them […] will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking immediately, both individually and in concert with the other Parties, such measures as it considers necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

The Polish leadership, for its part, spoke of an act of aggression that constitutes a real threat to the security of Polish citizens, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky saw another step of escalation on the part of Russia, which, however, sets an extremely dangerous precedent for Europe.

The first time

In any case, it was the first time that Russian drones were shot down over Poland, but also more broadly the first time that Russian drones were shot down over a NATO country. This is the first time that Russian unmanned aircraft have been shot down over the territory of a NATO country. All our allies are taking the situation very seriously, said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Whether it was intentional or not, it was something completely reckless and dangerous , said NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, leaving open a window of doubt about the feasibility of this particular Russian provocation, which could potentially lead to a partial de-escalation of tensions in the coming days.

Just a few hours earlier, however, approximately 6,000 km to the south, Israeli fighter jets had launched a surgical strike with missiles in the heart of the capital of Qatar, targeting leading Hamas figures, also an unprecedented event.

The Israeli operation, for which Netanyahu took full responsibility, came at a critical moment, while the Americans had just tabled a new ceasefire plan with Hamas as the recipient and their eyes on Gaza. It was well known that Qatar, which had been acting as a mediator in the negotiations for the intended ceasefire in Gaza in recent years, hosted high-ranking Hamas officials who participated in the negotiations. Why did the Israelis try to strike there now, for the first time?

There are many possible answers to this question, and not necessarily mutually exclusive:

•to torpedo the last hope of a ceasefire while preparing a major military operation in Gaza City

•to finish off Hamas by eliminating what was left of its leadership group

•to send a message more broadly to the Middle East region, but also in view of the United Nations General Assembly, that the situation is now changing...

Qatar was -as is well known- for many years one of the main financiers of Hamas, if not the main one among them, but with the tolerance of Israel which knew very well what was happening. Qatar was, however, also one of the most important allies of the USA, since it is home to the Al Udeid air base: the largest American base in the Middle East which also functions as the headquarters of the U.S. Central Command hosting around 10,000 American soldiers, a base that had played a key role in the American operations against the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The Israelis claim, for their part, that they had informed the US before the strike. The Americans, however, on the other hand, suggest that they should have been informed earlier, and not at the last minute.

According to White House spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt, the Israelis informed the US Pentagon (now the War Department, by Trump's decision), which then informed the White House, which then sent Steve Witkoff to call the Qataris, but the Qataris protest, claiming that the explosions had already begun when they received the phone call in question.

The unhappy Trump

In hindsight, Donald Trump declared himself very unhappy. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had meanwhile rushed to issue a statement in which it took full responsibility for the attack on Tuesday, stressing that Israel had acted alone and independently. The Israeli operation had, however, in the meantime, put Trump himself in a particularly uncomfortable position , as the White House spokeswoman would publicly admit. It should be noted in passing that Trump had toured Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates just last May, pursuing multi-billion dollar deals...

Crisis management

Although unprecedented, the aforementioned incidents in Poland and Qatar could, possibly, be seen - in terms of crisis management - as isolated and downgraded as over. Moscow appeared on Wednesday afternoon, for example, denying all responsibility, calling on the Poles to prove that the drones that were shot down were indeed Russian. Going a step further, it claimed that the drones in question did not come from Russia but from Ukraine, thus attempting to cause confusion within the Western camp.

Meanwhile, Trump himself had called the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, whom he assured that such a strike would not be repeated within Qatari borders, in an apparent attempt to defuse tension. Israel's permanent representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Danny Danon, was quick to clarify, for his part, that the strike in Doha was not an attack on Qatar, but on Hamas. However, he indirectly but clearly said something else: that the interests of the United States do not always coincide with what Israel considers to be its interests.

Some in Europe may, in a reassuring mood, attempt to downplay the Russian drones in Poland as a product of disorientation due to geographical proximity, since Poland neighbors war-torn Ukraine.

When the unprecedented are surpassed by new unprecedenteds

However, both Poland and Qatar have come under fire on other occasions in the recent past: Poland, the fragments of a Russian missile destined for Ukraine in November 2022, and Qatar, the - largely choreographed and therefore controlled - Iranian fire on the American Al Udeid base in June 2025. All of the above were unprecedented when they occurred, but are now considered minor in light of the newer unprecedented incidents of the last 24 hours.

Articles 4… and 5

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that Europe is closer to war than at any time since World War II. In the same context, he announced that Warsaw will activate NATO's Article 4. According to it: The Contracting Parties shall consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

If yesterday the NATO West was still far from Article 5, today it has come a step closer to it, while all the major players on the international chessboard are preparing to travel to New York for the United Nations General Assembly. It is noted that just as Qatar was/is the largest US base in the Middle East, so too is Poland the largest NATO power on the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance.

3+1 data

Within the high-intensity field of recent developments, a new matrix of data is now emerging:

• Donald Trump appears weak as he appears to be watching developments as an observer, expressing disappointment with the moves of leaders in whom he himself has invested diplomatic and communication capital, whether we are talking about Netanyahu or Putin, or even North Korea's Kim Jong Un. If his goal was peacemaking in Ukraine and Gaza (and the resulting Nobel Peace Prize), this goal now seems to be receding, since the fan of tension - instead of closing - is spreading to Poland and Qatar. If his other goal was to expand the Abraham Accords by including other countries, that goal now seems to be receding, as Saudi Arabia rushed this week to support Doha against Israel.

•Russia and Israel, from different starting points and with different goals, continue to test the limits of the post-Cold War -rules-based- international order, pushing the red lines of powers they see as competitors, whether we are talking about NATO Poland on the one hand or (important for the US) Qatar on the other.

•Within such a framework of rearrangement of international (im)balances, however, as the harsh revisionist power dynamically returns to the fore as a factor in creating faits accomplis, other forces are also taking courage, such as, for example, Turkey of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which have not hidden that they would like to become hegemonic in their neighborhood.

•And all this… at a time when the West and its allies are being shaken from within, some of them due to government crises ( France, Japan ) and others in the midst of successive upheavals (see USA under Trump ).