I think Putin is offering Trump a convenient way out, says Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics and a trusted Kremlin foreign policy adviser.

What does Putin expect from the Alaska summit?

There are two possible options. The first is for the two presidents to adopt a bilateral Russian-American plan to achieve a truce in Ukraine. This is crucial from the Kremlin's point of view: the agreement is between us and the United States, without Ukraine and Europe. This plan could include the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from areas of Donbass where they are still present, and Russia's withdrawal from the Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions, with the front line unchanged in other areas. I remember that a year ago, Moscow asked the Ukrainians to completely withdraw from all four annexed provinces, while now it is only asking for the Donbass. A crucial part of the agreement is Ukraine's commitment not to join NATO. So it's not just an exchange of territories. Obviously not. The commitment not to join the Atlantic Alliance is the essential precondition for any truce. Then the final agreements will naturally also have to include the demilitarization of Ukraine and constitutional reform along federal lines. But this was known from your position. What's the real news? First, that Russia is now willing to talk about a ceasefire, not just the final agreement. Second, that Putin is asking for a little less for the truce than he was a year ago. You mentioned two options. What's the second? If Zelensky, supported by the Europeans, rejects this solution, Trump would then cut off all military assistance to Kiev and even stop selling weapons to the Europeans, so that they can hand them over to Ukraine. But this would hasten their defeat and total collapse. And why would Trump, in this case, act against Kiev, without taking any punitive measures against Moscow as he had promised? If Trump so strongly and almost enthusiastically supports the agreement option, it is also because he has put himself in a difficult position by asking China, India, and Brazil to stop importing Russian oil, threatening them with secondary sanctions. China obviously says no, but New Delhi and Brasilia would never do so either, and their refusal would be a problem for America: at that point, either Trump gives in, appearing weak, or he gets sucked into a serious political and trade conflict with China and two key BRICS countries, with unpredictable outcomes. If, however, the Alaska summit were a success, with the approval of a joint plan for a truce in Ukraine, the fuse he recklessly lit with China, India, and Brazil would be defused, and the American president could even claim historic merit. This is why we expect Trump to accept Putin's proposal. For him, it's a way out, precisely.

Why Alaska? The symbolism of the location
has been much commented on.


That's right, it's a significant choice on a historical and political level. First, Alaska underscores the summit's bilateralism. There is no place in the world more exclusively Russian-American than Alaska: far from Europe and Ukraine, yet very close to Russia. It underscores the fact that Putin and Trump are finding a solution to the war in Ukraine alone. Second, the Alaska summit will be the first full-fledged Russian-US summit on American soil in 15 years; the last was in 2010 when Dmitry Medvedev visited Barack Obama in Washington. This signals a strong mutual desire to turn the page on the conflict and improve our relations. Third, the agenda has predetermined the choice of location: beyond Ukraine, the Arctic, a crucial point in bilateral relations, will be discussed. There is intense conflict in the region, a potential theater of armed conflict. Military activity by both Russia and the US is increasing. But with the melting ice and its greater accessibility, the Arctic is also the most promising area for the development of new economic cooperation between our two countries: joint research, exploration and exploitation of raw materials, and trade.