As expected, the French parliament has voted no confidence in Prime Minister François Bayrou. 364 MPs voted against continuing his mandate, while only 194 MPs supported him. The defeat is very clear and deeply painful for both the government and President Emmanuel Macron. The fourth prime minister in three years decided to seek parliamentary support because he wanted to push his extensive austerity program through parliament, but in recent days most parties have refused to support him.

No real favorite for successor

Even before the MEPs voted on Bayrou, official Berlin tried to calm the consequences of yet another political upheaval in France, one of the members of the European engine. The soothing words were aimed primarily at the financial markets. There, the government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that the stability of the eurozone depends on many countries and all market participants, so it is completely unnecessary to question this stability now. The French political storm is a threat to France's ability to limit its debt. Last year's public deficit, at 5.8 percent of GDP, would be almost twice as high as the permitted European deficit of 3 percent, and public debt already amounts to almost 114 percent of GDP. France could also face further downgrades of its credit ratings.

With Bayrou's downfall almost certain, President Macron was faced with three options: appoint a new prime minister, call early elections, or resign himself, which he has previously rejected. Since the latter option would not resolve France's political impasse - and it is questionable whether it would remain -, the idea of appointing a new prime minister was increasingly being considered. The most frequently mentioned name was Sébastien Lecornu, the current 39-year-old defense minister. Former prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve and former minister and current head of the Audit Office Pierre Moscovici were also reportedly in the running.

But there is no clear favorite to succeed Bayrou. Much depends on the outcome of the French political crisis. The Socialists want their own candidate for prime minister, and it is quite possible that Macron will choose a politician from their ranks. The Socialists' support is crucial for Macron to be able to pass an austerity budget in parliament and another important legislative package.

Bayrou's last call

The 74-year-old centrist prime minister, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron just nine months ago, stressed in his opening speech that France's fate is not yet written. As he has been on numerous television and radio stations in recent days, he also stressed in his 40-minute speech in parliament that France is now in its worst situation in 51 years, spending more than it earns. If this trend continues, it will have to declare bankruptcy and will no longer be able to borrow. He again stressed that the country needs to make a big change and reduce its debt.

If we want to save the ship, we must act together, he urged the deputies as the captain of a ship that is leaking and the hole needs to be plugged. He warned of the budget hole and the inability of the young generation to enjoy the promises of the republic regarding social services. He urged the deputies to vote according to their conscience and not accept the instructions of the parties, because their vote is fatal

But Bayrou probably didn't expect the MPs to change their minds. He had been trying to establish his place in history before the fateful vote. In the ensuing debate, even key socialists, whose votes Macron is counting on to support his next prime minister, rejected its implementation.

Critical parliamentary votes

Boris Vallaud, leader of the Socialist parliamentary group, attributed responsibility for the state of public finances to Macron and announced once again that they would not overthrow Bayrou. However, he announced that the Socialists were ready to govern if they were entrusted with the prime minister's mandate. The leader of the Ecology and Social parliamentary group Cyrielle Chatelain advised the centrist political forces not to continue with alliances with the right, which is no longer Gaullist. They must give up imposing their policies, she added, and called on President Macron to appoint a successor to the government from the ranks of the New Popular Front (which unites left and center-left parties from the Socialists to the Greens), who would change course.

Far-right Marine Le Pen reiterated the National Assembly's already well-known position during the debate that Macron must call new elections under the given circumstances. Legally, politically and even morally, everything indicates that dissolving parliament is not an option for Emmanuel Macron, but an obligation, Le Pen said. But early elections are not in Macron's best interest, as current opinion polls suggest the National Assembly would win even more strongly.