Donald Trump’s Gaza deal is a circuit breaker in the cycle of death. But it does not address its drivers. This is a ceasefire. Peace is harder.
Did the US president hasten the deal so that he could beat the Friday deadline for the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize winner? So it seems. But so what? “Blessed are the peacemakers!” as Trump said, quoting from the Sermon on the Mount. And surely everyone who values the sanctity of life would agree, even if Trump actually prefers a medal to a blessing.
Only a determined president of the US could force Israel to the negotiating table. And also apply sufficient pressure on two of the three main sponsors of Hamas – Qatar and Turkey, but not Iran – so that Hamas was forced to talk terms with Israel.
Trump’s intervention has set a path to achieve at least four things under phase one. First, to stop the wholesale killing of Palestinians, at least for now, and for Israel to make a partial withdrawal from Gaza.
Second, to free the remaining 20 or so Israeli hostages thought to be alive in return for Israel’s release of some 2000 Palestinian prisoners. Third, to allow aid to flow into Gaza.
A fourth benefit cascades from these three to the rest of the world. The ceasefire eases some of the pressure that the war has exerted on the great politico-ethno-religious fault line that invisibly circles the globe, dividing communities and energising animosity between Jews and Muslims.
Australia is only one of many nations relieved that this ancient animating hatred is, for now, being moderated, after two intense years of killing. But Israel and Hamas so far have agreed on implementation of only the first phase of Trump’s 20-point plan. So this is a ceasefire, not a peace agreement. While welcome, it’s a reprieve, not a resolution. That makes it the third ceasefire, or attempted ceasefire, of the Gaza war.
“The first phase is relatively easy,” says ANU emeritus professor of Middle East studies Amin Saikal. “The crunch time will come when they have to face the second” political transition in Gaza. “Israel hasn’t defined what a ‘partial withdrawal’ of its army means, and how and when will Hamas be disarmed?”
