US plan sees Ukraine ceding territory same size as Luxembourg: AFP analysis of ISW data

• Kyiv would relinquish nearly 5,000 sq km currently under its control in the Donetsk Oblast
• These concessions include the major cities of Kramatorsk and neighboring Sloviansk

PARIS: The US peace plan for Ukraine could see Russia gain an area almost the same size as Luxembourg without a fight, according to an AFP analysis of data provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The US initiative, seen by AFP, calls for the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from territories it still controls, leading to a net gain of approximately 2,300 square kilometers (888 square miles) for Moscow — almost the same area as Luxembourg (2,590 sq km), without firing a single shot.

Kyiv would relinquish nearly 5,000 sq km currently under its control in the Donetsk Oblast — which would be used to create a buffer zone — and a 45 sq km pocket in the Lugansk Oblast. These concessions include the major cities of Kramatorsk and neighboring Sloviansk.

NEW: All available reporting continues to indicate that the stipulations of the reported 28-point Russia-US peace plan amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation to Russia’s original war demands. There are no provisions in the reported peace plan in which Russia makes any concessions,…

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) November 21, 2025

In exchange, Moscow would return nearly 2,000 sq km that it claims, or at least partially controls, in the Kharkiv Oblast; 450 sq km in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; 300 sq km in the Sumy Oblast; and 20 sq km in the Chernigiv Oblast.

The plan also envisages recognizing Crimea, annexed by Moscow in 2014, Donetsk and Lugansk as “de facto” Russian.

It would also see vast areas currently under Russian control in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions ceded to Moscow. Ultimately, the plan proposed by Washington would effectively cede 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory to recover less than 0.5 percent.

The calculations are based on the areas fully or partially controlled by Russia and those that it claims, as of November 20, according to data from the ISW, who work with the Critical Threats Project (CTP). The Russian army has advanced 398 sq km into Ukrainian territory since the beginning of November, setting a faster pace than in September and October.

By November 20, the Russian army fully or partially controlled 19.3 percent of Ukrainian territory. Around 7 percent, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas, was already under Russian control before the start of the February 2022 invasion.