Donald Trump has apparently reversed course on several key Ukraine issues. Could that make peace talks easier?

After the Alaska meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, there has been deep disagreement: What really happened? Was it a diplomatic failure – or a progress?

Despite great unrest and skepticism, a number of European leaders chose to view the meeting positively on Saturday. Among them is Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. She says that Donald Trump raised the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine during the meeting in Alaska.

– President Trump today showed interest in the Italian idea of security guarantees inspired by NATO's Article 5, a statement from Meloni said.

CNN also reports that Donald Trump raised this idea with Putin. A statement from the European Council on Saturday states that the United States is now prepared to provide a security guarantee.

If this is true, Donald Trump has completely changed his mind.

What does that mean for any peace negotiations?

Ended in an argument

Earlier this year, Trump flatly refused to guarantee Ukraine's security. This happened when Ukrainian President Zelensky met with him at the White House in February. Zelensky came to the meeting to ask for security guarantees. It ended in a open-camera argument.

If European leaders are to be believed, he has now turned around.

Could a security guarantee make peace negotiations easier? It could actually happen, says Russia expert Julie Wilhelmsen

– I think that such guarantees are absolutely fundamental to securing Ukraine in a situation where Russia has gained more of an upper hand in the war, says Wilhelmsen.

Trump has also apparently changed his mind about a ceasefire. He previously wanted a ceasefire first, and then peace negotiations. Now he has instead agreed with Putin, who wants a peace agreement on the table before he lays down his arms.

– Forced to accept compromise

– If Trump can agree to such guarantees from the United States, there is also a greater chance that Bankova can accept the de facto loss of control over parts of the territory occupied by Russia, says Wilhelmsen.

Control over parts of Ukraine is a key demand from Russia. Wilhelmsen believes it is difficult to imagine that Ukraine can win back the areas militarily now. This could force Zelenskyj to accept the loss of land, she believes.

.

Despite this, Wilhelmsen points out that it is not known whether Trump is actually willing to provide such guarantees on behalf of the United States.

– He hasn't indicated that. But he may have a different understanding of the situation now, she says.

– This will take time.

The reports that the United States is willing to provide security guarantees to Ukraine are coming from European leaders. The American administration, for its part, has been a little more cautious. And Trump has not said anything about it himself.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio did indeed say on Thursday that there must be a conversation about security guarantees to achieve peace. But the US administration has not said anything publicly about who will provide the guarantees or what they will look like.

European countries have long tried to secure security guarantees for Ukraine, but it is very difficult to achieve without support from the United States.

“No one has dared to promise anything without American security guarantees for those forces,” says Tom Røseth, a senior lecturer in intelligence at the Norwegian Armed Forces College.

At the same time, Ukraine will not accept a peace agreement without a security guarantee. If Donald Trump has changed his mind, it could make peace negotiations possible, says Røseth. But:

– This will take time. And it is difficult. Russia is probably making very steep demands, he says.

Russia is demanding control over four Ukrainian regions, among other things. This is more than it has taken by military force:

– Essentially a nuclear weapons guarantee

Røseth believes the most likely outcome is an American security guarantee for European forces in Ukraine. Not for Ukraine itself. Several European countries have expressed their willingness to provide soldiers to a security force in Ukraine.

“It is clearly easier to achieve,” he says.

But it depends on a guarantee from the US.

– It is basically a nuclear weapons guarantee. So the Russians know that if something happens to the European forces in Ukraine, the Europeans will have security guarantees until the very end.

– But will such a nuclear weapons guarantee be credible if the US is not willing to send its own soldiers now?

“It is clear that credibility is weakened if there are no American forces on the ground. But everything so far indicates that this must be a European responsibility,” he says.