The new trade order that Donald Trump is subjecting the world to has a special chapter for Mexico. They are major partners, with $800 billion in merchandise exchanged annually. But that's not the only thing that unites and separates them. There's also a border of more than 3,000 kilometers through which weapons and drugs flow, leaving thousands dead from fentanyl in the north and thousands dead from violence in the south. These circumstances, coupled with migration, have contaminated relations that have been negotiated for decades behind closed doors and that today allow the US president to play good cop, bad cop with his weak partner.

This Thursday, there was a silver lining: Mexico will maintain 25% of tariff increases on products outside the Free Trade Agreement that unites them, while the remaining 84% of goods will be exempt from penalties. President Claudia Sheinbaum receives special treatment that translates into another 90 days of respite to continue negotiating. Some ambiguities in Trump's friendly message suggest, however, that the war cannot be considered over."Trump is not trustworthy; while his term lasts, everything will be in question. There is no guarantee that he won't use the same strategies in the new negotiations for those longer-term agreements the president has mentioned," says international expert Carlos Bravo.

It's important that the tariff war has been redirected toward respect for the trade agreement (USMCA), but that doesn't mean that the strategy of threats in exchange for results in other policies, used by the Republican until now, won't extend into the remainder of this year and all of next year, when other aspects of said treaty will be discussed that have nothing to do with tariffs, but rather with labor, union, product origin, or patent policies, to name a few of those mentioned by Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard. An agreement between the two countries on security—that is, on criminal organizations and their fight against —is about to be signed, according to President Sheinbaum, and it is assumed that this was necessary to achieve this three-month relief. But it cannot be ruled out that the specter of drug trafficking, drugs, or migration will not stir again in what remains to be negotiated.

For now, President Sheinbaum is scoring a point, receiving praise from her team, congratulations from business leaders, and receiving a round of applause at her morning press conference, where she announced that they are already preparing the first-year report, for which she will have this ace up her sleeve. However, it remains to be seen what terms of the aforementioned security agreement and what possible concessions Mexico has made or is about to make under Trump's ambiguous allusion to the"immediate elimination of its numerous non-tariff trade barriers." Talks continue."We are still facing a very poor information environment, based on statements from both governments, which manage what they want and don't want to say, their timelines and their costs. Credibility is beginning to falter," says Bravo, although she remains optimistic about the new 90-day deadline, which also represents a relief for the business community and the Mexican economy as a whole.

Unlike what happened with Brazil, where President Lula da Silva has refused to allow former President Bolsonaro's legal situation to be used as a bargaining chip and is forced to accept 50% tariffs, Mexico has many more dependencies and must continue using that tactic of"cool heads" and mutual respect that was once again demonstrated this Thursday as the key to success."The important thing with Trump is not to confront, to defend our own interests, and to seek solutions to his demands," said Sheinbaum, who had previously held a 40-minute phone call with her American counterpart."Splendid handling" of the negotiations by the Mexican president, said Secretary Ebrard,"without any intention of flattery." Foreign Minister Juan Ramón de la Fuente expressed similar views.

Everyone seems to consider the crisis closed, which will lead to agreements"covering the next few years," bringing us closer in these 90 days to the renewal of the USMCA and a certain stability in relations."This is not an extension," said Ebrard, who also asserted that what was achieved has come"without concessions on the part of Mexico. It couldn't be better." The allusions to fentanyl and other barriers unrelated to tariffs, slipped into Trump's message, however, suggest that complete peace has not yet arrived. Despite this, the president has described the end of this chapter as"the best possible agreement compared to what other nations have achieved." "I think the tariff issues will not return, but oh well..." she left in suspense, given the Republican's whims.

"If we're in a new phase of relations with the United States, it's one of installment diplomacy," exemplifies analyst Carlos Bravo."We have to cultivate skepticism," he says, in the face of possible future outbursts from Trump regarding border security and the cartels. Mexico is applauding itself today in light of what other nations have achieved, but its future is more complex. The free trade agreement remains ahead, and it is still unknown whether it will be a simple renegotiation or a complete revision to Trump's liking. It is also unknown whether it will continue to be maintained among"the three amigos"—Canada, the United States, and Mexico—as a pillar for the economic strengthening of North America or whether it will be negotiated separately, a divide-and-conquer strategy that the Americans could play.