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Trump punishes the EU with tariffs of 30%, much higher than expected.

Saturday, July 12


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The United States, in a decision far worse and more aggressive than expected and leaked in recent days, has decided to penalize the European Union with 30% tariffs on all its products. The measure, which significantly worsens the additional and disproportionate 20% tax announced on April 2, and triples the 10% in force since that date, will come into effect on August 1 if both parties fail to reach a definitive trade agreement before then.

Washington waited until Saturday, with the markets closed and two days of calm ahead, unlike the mistake it made after the so-called Liberation Day, which led to several consecutive sessions with the stock markets in the red. These days, speculation in the corridors of Brussels was rife with a figure of around 15 or 17% on the table, with exceptions for sectors especially critical to Europeans, who were fighting to reduce it. What Washington is doing now with this letter is stepping up a gear, suffocating the governments of the 27, trying to provoke a split and getting them to call Ursula Von der Leyen, the recipient of Trump's letter, to close a less damaging agreement as soon as possible. The same thing it did with Canada (35%) and Mexico (30%), whose letter was published minutes before the European one.

"We note the letter sent by US President Trump, which outlines a revised tariff rate and a new timeline. Imposing 30% tariffs on EU exports would disrupt vital transatlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers, and patients on both sides of the Atlantic. Few economies in the world match the European Union's level of openness and commitment to fair trading practices. The EU has consistently prioritized a negotiated solution with the US, reflecting our commitment to dialogue, stability, and a constructive transatlantic partnership. We remain ready to continue working towards an agreement by 1 August. At the same time, we will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including proportionate countermeasures if necessary," Ursula von der Leyen said in a tepid statement. President of the European Commission.

There was a lot of confusion in Brussels about whether Trump would want to announce a deal, as he did with the United Kingdom, with a statement in the Oval Office surrounded by advisors and the British ambassador, with Prime Minister Starmer coming in by phone, or whether there would be some kind of message on social media. Or a letter, since his messages have been constantly contradictory. In the end, he didn't wait because he was under pressure, desperate to announce any success. Despite the fact that in recent months the EU has swallowed a 10% flat tariff, a 25% on cars and components, and a 50% on steel and aluminum without responding. And despite the fact that he never activated the prepared package of tariff countermeasures worth almost €90 billion.

In April, the White House promised 90 agreements in 90 days, but to date it can only boast of two, which are also untrue. It has a political agreement with the United Kingdom, but it is still being technically worked on and will take months. And another with Vietnam, which it has celebrated, although Hanoi has not confirmed it at any point. The mockery of the effectiveness of Trump and his team is constant, so to speed up the process, after having had to extend the self-imposed deadline from July 9 to August 1, it is resorting to public diplomatic extortion, a new genre in its execution.

Trump is using the same format with the EU as with Japan, South Korea, and so many other countries. A passive-aggressive text with unprecedented language in bilateral relations between partners. A message that presents this measure as excellent news, something worth celebrating, because it means, in Donald Trump's singular vision, that the US and the EU will continue doing business, instead of completely cutting ties. An option that obviously never existed, but which somehow serves to justify this absurd, unacceptable figure and the beginning of an escalation in which no one can win, as the President of the Commission says.

" It is a great honor for me to send you this letter that demonstrates the strength and commitment of our commercial relations and the fact that the United States has decided to continue working with the EU despite having one of the largest trade deficits," he says, presenting it as a great opportunity, inviting the EU to" participate in the extraordinary economy of the United States, number 1 in the world by far" but changing the dynamics of the past and under a more "fair" framework since he feels that "the relationship is not reciprocal." For this reason, says the president, from August 1 they will only charge"30 on all" European products, but only if there are no equivalent retaliations. If the EU responds, something that the ministers of the branch will analyze tomorrow, Monday, , the escalation would be automatic."Please understand that these measures are necessary to correct many years of imbalances and trade barriers. If you decide to respond with a tariff, the amount you choose will be added to the 30%," says the text, which describes the current situation as"a threat to the national security of the United States."

For months, the EU has assumed it would have to accept an asymmetric surcharge, which it considers unfair and disproportionate. But the US is not only the world's largest economy, but also the largest military and nuclear power, the linchpin of NATO. European defense remains in the hands of an Alliance dominated by Washington, and the price of losing that is higher than accepting tariffs on European goods. Even if they are based on false, inflated data that completely ignore services and focus only on goods. That's why EU countries have agreed to increase defense spending to 5%, something that can only be achieved by purchasing massively from US industry.

The US pressure is very strong. It's not just about a 5% or 10% or even this 30% tax on each European export, which will be reduced when they reach an agreement. Their lobbying extends to the Digital Services Acts, to competition decisions that always significantly affect the world's major multinationals, which are mainly American. And to the tax on technology companies that the EU was designing as part of its plan to increase its own resources (the Union is financed with a budget that is provided by injections from each capital and that only has a minimal percentage of direct income thanks to some minor taxes) and which it has renounced in the middle of this negotiation.

The US wanted a comprehensive package, and European political negotiators, particularly in Paris and Berlin, are still searching for a bearable balance."The sooner we reach an agreement, the better, because that would remove the uncertainty surrounding the tariff issue, which we see is already weighing on the economy and business decisions," veteran finance commissioner Valdis Dombroviskis said this week. Tariffs cost a lot of money, but uncertainty, rivalry, investment doubts, and the risk of losing military cover are even more expensive.

The letters have become a catch-all, anything-goes, all-purpose. The president sometimes presents them as the culmination of an agreement in his statements, but they are more of a unilateral and punitive imposition, judging by the language he uses in them. They are also proof that tariffs are an instrument of policy, whether economic or ideological, but that they have little to do with trade.

On April 2, when he celebrated"Liberation Day" and announced tariffs for almost the entire planet, he did so based on two falsehoods. The enormous tables he showed to the television cameras contained two columns with two figures per country. The first, completely unrealistic and inflated, purported to represent the number of tariffs and restrictions that each country (or bloc like the EU) imposes on American products. The second, the corresponding tariff for each, based on what was later revealed to be a completely absurd and arbitrary formula that in no way reflected potential restrictions on US goods (not services), but simply the trade deficit. In other words, Trump was penalizing poor countries with enormous tariffs, for example, for the sin of buying fewer products from a developed, wealthy economy than they sell.

But there's much more to it, as seen Wednesday night. The president sent a letter to South Korea, which has a free trade agreement and barely taxes US goods, and another to Brazil announcing tariffs of 50%, the highest announced in this latest wave. The reason isn't to reduce trade imbalances, although the letter cynically says that 50% is"less than necessary to level the playing field" and bring order "to the injustices of the current system," the tagline he's used in almost all of the previous ones. And it isn't, because Brazil doesn't have a trade deficit with the US, but a surplus. It buys more than it sells, and that's why on April 2 it 'only' had a 10% tariff, which is the minimum it will apply to everyone.

The reason is entirely political and ideological. Just as he threatened Israel last week, on two occasions, to stop providing military aid over the trials facing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump brutally attacked the Brazilian state and its institutions for the trials of his friend and ally Bolsonaro,"an international disgrace." With references to "a witch hunt that must stop immediately" and a denunciation of "persecution of freedom of expression and the rights of Americans" due to the decisions of Brazilian courts against big tech companies for hoaxes on social media.

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