The Trump-Putin meeting is being hailed as a breakthrough that could lead to an end to the war in Ukraine. However, this isn't expected to happen immediately, as both the American media and the leaders of the US and Russia seem to indicate that this is the first in a series of meetings.
What do we know about this event? The presidents of the United States and Russia will meet in Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday at 9:30 PM Polish time. This will be the first meeting between the leaders of these countries in four years, when Joe Biden met with Putin in Switzerland. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian has met exclusively with allies and has been isolated by the West.
"The mere invitation to Alaska for a one-on-one conversation with Putin is a gesture toward the Russian leader. Putin will want to follow up. In 1906, President Theodore Roosevelt received the Nobel Peace Prize for reconciling Russia and Japan. I think Putin will use this argument in the context of Trump, who could gain a chance for a similar award after nearly 120 years if he"reconciles" Russia with Ukraine. And Trump could"buy" such an argument," believes Dr. Tomasz Pawłuszko, who works at the Łukasiewicz Research Network (ITECH Institute), studies technological rivalry between states, and also lectures at the University of Opole.
For the first time in 10 years – since the 2015 UN General Assembly in New York – Putin will stand on American soil. And on land that is familiar to Russians, as Alaska belonged to that country until the second half of the 19th century. However, Tsar Alexander II sold it to the Americans in 1867 for $7.2 million.
Alaska is therefore a place that symbolizes bargaining, striking a deal between the US and Russia. It is also a place associated with a time not so distant past – Alaska was a front line between East and West during the Cold War.
This will be the subject of negotiations between the two powers. The subject, not the subject. Volodymyr Zelensky will not be at the table, and the main players have ruled out such a possibility. Trump would like this, but he believes that he must first lay the groundwork for such a conversation. Putin, however, said that certain conditions must be met before his meeting with the Ukrainian president can take place, and"that is still a long way off."
The Putin-Trump conversation will take place in the shadow of intensified Russian attacks on Ukraine. Once again, the Russians want to demonstrate that they are coming to the table from a position of strength, because there is no doubt that they currently dominate the Ukrainian front. Putin therefore holds more cards in his hand than even six months ago, when American negotiators met with Russian ones in the Middle East.
Alaska: Trump-Putin Talks and Three Key Issues
- For months, Putin has been trying to convince Trump of at least three things. First, he is presenting the Russian point of view to"force" his terms in the conflict with Ukraine. Second, Putin is trying to explain to Trump that US support for Ukraine"unnecessarily" prolongs the war. He will probably try to persuade Trump to withdraw this support. Third, he will try to play off the United States from Europe so that the US will withdraw from Europe in the near future, emphasizes Dr. Pawłuszko.
Russia would rather have Trump chase the rabbit than get what he wants right away. Besides, Putin won't give him what he wants.
Dr. Daniel Boćkowski, professor at the University of Białystok
"It will be relatively easiest for the Russians to obtain ceasefire terms that would be acceptable to the Americans, Europeans, and ultimately, the Ukrainians. This is possible because it's cheap. A ceasefire is the first stage, a truce is the second, and peace talks are the third. Some kind of ceasefire can be achieved, and only subsequent talks would concern a possible truce. It's also difficult to assume that such agreements would be lasting. The second Minsk ceasefire"lasted" for seven years," the Interia source reminded.
There is also one"but," because, as Dr. Pawłuszko points out, Ukraine, which so far has been repeating:"nothing about us without us," must also agree to a possible ceasefire. Putin will try to outplay Trump by explaining that Russia wants peace, Ukraine doesn't, and Europe is"prolonging the war" and trying to set Russia against the US. Trump may fall for this because he is not historically sensitive to border changes in Europe, which occur on average every 40-50 years. For Trump, this is a distant topic, so Putin will have a lot of room for manipulation, the Americanist believes.
Putin's Conversation with Trump: Opportunity or Threat?
Both politicians also make no secret of the fact that they are sitting down to the same table to strike a deal. On the one hand, this presents an opportunity, on the other, a threat. Because only these two politicians know what they expect from the other. And to be clear, they care about the best interests of their country, nothing else.
"Let's not expect anything, and that will make us less confused. I don't think anything sensible will be agreed there. Everyone has completely different interests. Russia would rather have Trump chase the rabbit than get what he wants right away. Besides, Putin won't give him what he wants. I'm prepared for a game of appearances, where everyone will say they're the best, but in reality, nothing will change," says Daniel Boćkowski, a professor at the University of Białystok who specializes in international security.
"I don't think they'll talk specifically about Ukraine. Putin will be smart enough to say what he wants very clearly and unambiguously on the Ukrainian issue. That will be the end of Trump's great follies," he adds.
T rump does not hide the fact that the result of these talks will be an"exchange of territories", and these words have already been used several times in his recent statements."It will take place," he said, citing information from Russia. He also added that during these talks the front lines will change. He also ambiguously emphasized that it will be somewhat good for Ukraine, but also somewhat bad for both sides.
Elsewhere, Trump said that"Russia has occupied a large part of Ukraine. It has occupied key territory. We will try to get some of that territory back for Ukraine."
"There's certainly a whole range of options for territorial changes on the table. It seems that Ukrainians are realistic enough to accept the loss of Crimea. In return, Russia would have to cede some occupied lands, for example, in Donbas or Zaporizhzhia. Unfortunately, the seizure of a significant amount of Ukrainian land in 2022 allows Russia to be the stronger party in the negotiations today, which can use the fait accompli method," believes Dr. Pawłuszko.
A ceasefire is the first stage, a truce is the second, and peace talks are the third. Some kind of ceasefire is achievable, and only subsequent talks would address a possible truce.
Dr. hab. Tomasz Pawłuszko
Trump also emphasized that Friday's meeting in Alaska would be more of a"get-to-know-you meeting," which suggests there will be more similar events."Trump has already toned down his tone, having clearly been told he won't do anything. Trump doesn't need to get to know Putin; they've met many times and called him his friend. If his administration is sending such signals, then he has no illusions. First, Trump promised everything, then he didn't know whether Alaska was the US or Russia, and now he knows what the chances are of getting a result," emphasizes Professor Boćkowski.
Trump seems less concerned about the content of the talks, the scope of the negotiations, and the potential for a deal to be struck than he is about Putin's attitude. He emphasized that two minutes would be enough for him to determine whether Putin truly wanted to talk.
Putin, yes, wants to talk, but he sees no reason to make concessions. The meeting with Trump itself is a monumental honor for him. Isolated on the international stage for months, he now meets with one of the most powerful men in the world as an equal. Putin's dreams of treating Russia as a power that, together with another power, solves minor international problems—and in his view, the Ukrainian issue is one such—are slowly coming true.
Putin also regularly, consistently, and bluntly explains what he demands of Kyiv for a ceasefire. However, there are many conditions, all of which are extremely unfavorable for Ukraine, which is already warning that it will not accept the US-Russia agreement.
Europe is also essentially excluded from the talks, as it's a bone in Putin's throat and a weak, low-value partner for Trump. It's no wonder, then, that Europe is full of concerns about the outcome of the Alaska talks. This is despite the fact that European leaders held a conference call with Trump on Wednesday.
Did the Europeans influence Trump in any way? The US president had previously announced that after his conversation with Putin, he would inform the Europeans of what had been agreed in Alaska if the Russian president proposed a"fair deal." Before that, Trump argued, he would call Zelensky.
Dr. hab. Tomasz Pawłuszko : - Europe has known Putin from the beginning and knows what he's capable of. Europeans want to ensure that any resolution to the Ukrainian conflict doesn't work like an appeasement strategy against Hitler and doesn't result in conflicts spilling over into other countries. European countries fear that if Russia successfully navigates the peace talks and the US begins to gradually withdraw from Europe, it will encourage Moscow to take further aggressive actions. It's good that almost all of Europe is speaking with one voice, and it's good that European leaders managed to talk to Trump before the Alaska summit.
Prof. Daniel Boćkowski : - Europe isn't losing. The only person who's losing so far is Trump. This is the worst news we can get. All his weaknesses, blunders, and problems impact our security. His mistakes cost us more than they cost him.
A series of reactions ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas admitted in an interview with the BBC that she fears Putin will follow the old method – divide territories and spheres of influence. She emphasized that aggression cannot be rewarded and that all occupied territories belong to Ukraine.
NATO chief Mark Rutte, however, is more optimistic about the Trump-Putin talks. In his opinion, Trump"wants to make sure Putin is serious, and if not, that will be the end of it (...). If he is serious, the process will continue from Friday. Ukraine will get involved, the Europeans will get involved" - added Rutte.
Meanwhile, before his conversation with Trump, Putin is also holding a series of meetings. He has held discussions in the last week with Xi Jinping of China, Narendra Modi of India, Lula of Brazil, as well as with the leaders of South Africa, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan.
Vladimir Putin is wanted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague for war crimes, among other things. However, the United States is not a member of the ICC, so it will not be obligated to arrest him. After his visit to the US and meeting with Donald Trump, Putin will return home.
Łukasz Szpyrka
