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Security guarantees for Ukraine in the wake of a ceasefire. What might they look like?

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Wednesday, August 20


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KIEV, BRATISLAVA. Ukraine and its allies are"already working on the specific content of security guarantees" that could lead to a ceasefire in the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said after a meeting at the White House on Monday.

The details should be"formalized on paper" within the next week to ten days, he added after talks with US President Donald Trump and several top European leaders.

The US president is currently trying to arrange a face-to-face meeting between Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin."I hope President Putin is good, and if he's not, it's going to be a tough situation. I also hope President Zelensky does what he has to do. He has to show some flexibility," Trump said, as quoted by the British newspaper The Guardian.

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He is equally vague about security guarantees for Kiev from the American side. However, he has already ruled out a key demand for Ukraine - just like Moscow.

For now, there are more questions than answers surrounding this hotly debated topic. What do we know so far about possible security guarantees for Ukraine, who could provide them, and what might they look like?

Foreign soldiers in Ukraine?

The first option being discussed is sending foreign troops to Ukraine. Britain and France, for example, have already shown a willingness to do so as part of a"reassuring force."

"We must help Ukraine on the ground," said French President Emmanuel Macron, who is the most skeptical of Russian President Putin among European leaders.

The statement came after an online conference on Tuesday of the so-called Coalition of the Willing, led by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which includes around thirty countries supporting Ukraine.

A total of ten countries are willing to send their troops to Ukraine, Bloomberg reported after the meeting, citing an anonymous source familiar with the negotiations. It did not name specific countries, however.

The question remains as to how the troops would operate there. The Kremlin has long rejected the involvement of NATO troops in the fighting in Ukraine - it is therefore likely that it would reject such a ceasefire condition.

Foreign soldiers could therefore help with training in large cities like Kiev or Lviv, for example. Another option is to help with intelligence and logistics.

Protection of skies or ports

Another option is to help protect Ukrainian skies. One option seems to be to station aircraft at existing air bases in neighboring Poland or Romania, with the US also helping.

"But if they are to be anything more than a symbolic gesture, they would still need clear and strict rules of engagement," warns BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner.

In practice, this would mean that pilots would have to know whether to respond with fire to Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities in the event of a ceasefire violation.

European allies could also help protect the Black Sea - specifically, preventing the advance of the Russian flotilla or ensuring the safe passage of merchant ships from ports such as the city of Odessa.

Another European tool is sanctions on gas and oil exports from Russia, which Zelensky has long called for. European diplomacy chief Kaja Kallas expressed hope on the social network X that the next package of sanctions should be ready by September.

"The EU will continue to target Russia's war economy," she wrote, adding that Ukraine needs strong security guarantees because Putin cannot be trusted.

Help from the US

After meeting with European leaders led by Zelensky, Trump indicated that he was willing to help. However, most of the responsibility would fall on European states.

"They are the first line of defense because they are in place. But we will help them. In terms of security, there will be a lot of help," the US president said in the Oval Office alongside Zelensky on Monday.

US officials have not yet specified what exactly such aid might look like, but Trump himself has already ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine or allowing the country to join NATO.

In an interview with his favorite Fox News channel, he even said that Ukraine's request was"offensive." "It's something that should never have happened. They shouldn't have asked for it," he said.

Trump also suggested in the interview that the United States could help with air defense, but he reiterated that most of the assistance would have to come from European countries.

"We are willing to help them. None of them have the things we have," he said of air defense.

Article 5 for Ukraine?

Steve Witkoff, Trump's envoy for the Ukraine talks and who met with Putin in Moscow before him, also spoke to Fox News. He said the U.S. role in the talks will be to narrow the differences between Ukraine and Russia enough to bring them together.

Ukraine, he said, will make the decision based on security guarantees."It wants to make sure that (the attack) can never happen to it again, and that's exactly what it should think," he told the channel.

Witkoff also suggested over the weekend that the US could offer Ukraine measures similar to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which considers an attack on one member as an attack on all - even without Kiev joining the organization. What that would look like in practice is unknown.

Russian reluctance

However, for a ceasefire to happen, both sides must agree to its terms. Analysts are particularly skeptical of Russia.

Moscow has long rejected Ukraine's membership in NATO or the presence of foreign troops on its territory.

Russia is against"any scenario that assumes a military presence in Ukraine with the participation of NATO countries," said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

However, this does not agree with Trump's statement after last week's meeting with Putin in Alaska - the American president said that his Russian counterpart was willing to agree to security guarantees for Ukraine.

Putin continues to insist that Ukraine hand over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east of the country to Russia, which Zelensky strongly rejects.

Former British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace therefore believes that the West must put pressure on Russia.

"The reality that no one wants to admit is that Putin shows no sign of wanting to stop the killing. Until Trump or Europe or both sides are prepared to do something to make Putin want change, little will be achieved," he told the BBC.

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