Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado was not mentioned as a favorite for the prize. But at 1:00 AM last night, something happened. Now there will be an investigation.

The winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2025 is Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado (58), said the head of the Nobel Committee, Jørgen Watne Frydnes, when he met with the world press.

Machado is the first from Venezuela and the fourth from South America to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Machado was called by Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Nobel Institute, and woke up at 10:50 Norwegian time to be informed that she had won the prize. It was then 04:50 in Venezuela.

Her first reaction was that it was overwhelming.

– She said the award was not for her, but for the movement, Harpviken tells Aftenposten.

Suddenly became the odds favorite

Machado was not mentioned as one of the favorites for the award until yesterday. But at 01:00 on Friday night Norwegian time, something happened.

Then she suddenly became the favorite to win the prize at Polymarket, the world's largest probability website. This is a website where people can bet money on future events.

Overnight, the likelihood that Machado would be awarded the award exploded, according to Polymarkets.

Several people have placed large bets on her winning during the night. Among them, one person placed $67,820 on Machado winning, writes Finansavisen.

Three users made around 300,000 kroner betting on Machado winning the Peace Prize. One of these was created the same day the bet was placed.

– She (Machado, editor's note) went from not being on the list to suddenly being one of the favorites. Do you have a leak in the Nobel Committee?

– This information is new to me, so I know nothing about it, says Jørgen Watne Frydnes to Aftenposten.

– Because you guys are good at keeping secrets, but this suddenly became a hot topic?

– We tend to be very good at keeping secrets, precisely because all discussion about who is nominated and who has been nominated is secret for fifty years, he says.

Department head: To be investigated

On Friday afternoon, the head of the Nobel Institute, Kristian Berg Harpviken, told Aftenposten that they will investigate what happened. Finansavisen has also reported on this.

Exactly how they will do it, he does not want to share.

– We will not prepare a requirements specification that we will share with the public. This is because this specification may contain mission-critical information, says Harpviken.

– How many people knew who would receive the Peace Prize?

– We are not going to give a number. It will make it easier to find out who knows. So I ask for your understanding. But it is a small handful.

– Are we now certain that there has been a leak?

– I think it's too early to be certain that there is a leak. But this is something we will now investigate, says Harpeviken.

He further says that he considers it most likely that it is a digital leak.

Discontent in the White House

There was no peace prize for US President Donald Trump, despite him saying that it would be an insult to the United States if he did not receive it.

A White House spokesperson makes it clear that the United States is dissatisfied.

– The Nobel Committee has proven that they put politics before peace, writes spokesman Steven Cheung on X, formerly Twitter.

Shortly after his appointment, the head of the Nobel Committee was asked about the pressure that has come from the United States.

– At the risk of sounding a bit arrogant, it has gone very well. This committee and this institute are used to being in a lot of attention in their long history, receiving thousands of inquiries and many opinions about both the prize and our work. We have done what we always do, we adhere to the criteria in Alfred Nobel's will, Frydnes tells Aftenposten.

– Has worked for the freedom of the people of Venezuela

Machado is receiving the award for having shown extraordinary civil courage in the fight for free elections in Venezuela. She has challenged the authoritarian rule of Nicolás Maduro.

In Venezuela, she lives in hiding and moves around.

Machado has been banned from holding public office since 2023. Therefore, she has not been able to run as the opposition's presidential candidate.

It is not certain that she will be able to come to Oslo in December to receive the award.

– We always prefer to have the laureate here when the prize is awarded, but it is too early to say whether she can attend the award ceremony in Oslo. This is a serious security situation that must be handled, said the head of the Nobel Committee when asked by Aftenposten.

Machado has called for sanctions against the regime. In the wake of speculation that the United States would invade Venezuela, she has been clear that she opposes a military invasion.

– Machado has spent years working for the freedom of the people of Venezuela, said Frydnes.

– She has shown that the tools of democracy are also the tools of peace.

Surprising price

This is a very surprising award, according to Nobel historian Asle Sveen.

– The committee avoided a lot of conflicts, Sveen tells Aftenposten.

He believes it would have provoked Trump if the award had gone to someone at the UN, an organization for journalists or the International Criminal Court.