The key is protected by the holy mountain, the nuclear site of Fordow. It is inside this gigantic bunker that Iran has installed a part of the centrifuges needed to enrich uranium . A tough target even for the Israeli air force, which for now has only been able to scratch the outside of a fundamental plant.
The latest satellite images have shown, so far, minor consequences for a retaining wall along an access road.
The Islamic Republic, since the first days of its existence, has carefully followed what was happening in the Middle East. Taking into account its own experiences, always difficult, and those of its neighbors. For eight years it waged war with Iraq, also using surface-to-surface missiles, an indispensable tool of war today. In that same period it witnessed the Israeli raid on the Iraqi nuclear reactor of Osirak, the first act of counter-proliferation carried out by Tel Aviv. And it understood that if it wanted to develop the atomic sector it would have to think about how to protect it. Hence the plan for underground structures, capable of taking hits, such as Fordow and more recently at Kolan Gaz, south of Natanz.
The construction of the laboratory began in 2006-2007 while the regime only recognized its existence in 2009. The choice of location was determined by the characteristics of the mountainous area perfect for use as a refuge. According to some, there is also a symbolic aspect: the region of Fordow had a high percentage of martyrs in the conflict with Saddam Hussein's troops and is not far from the holy city of Qom, a beacon of the Shiite religion. Of course this second point is irrelevant compared to security needs and the value of scientific research in a strategic field. The facility would be composed of a series of very large spaces where the equipment has been placed.
A report by the British RUSI estimates that they are at a depth of 90-100 meters, a level sufficient to withstand a strike by the Israelis. The air force has bunker-busters, it has used many of them to eliminate Hezbollah leaders housed in tunnels dug under buildings, but it does not have the GBU 57A developed by the Pentagon, bombs that can be dropped from B-2 bombers. Because the Spirit, as it is known in jargon, is the only aircraft that can carry the GBU-57, the 14-ton super bomb designed to destroy bunkers at great depths. That is, a target similar to the Iranian nuclear site of Fordow, dug inside a mountain.
The device was developed in the first half of the 2000s with a view to use it against hostile countries, from North Korea to the Islamic Republic. It was then modified to increase its destructive power with innovations that were never fully revealed for security reasons. The GBU must penetrate the protective shell and then detonate in order to amplify the effects inside the target. It seems that the latest updates have expanded its capabilities even if there is no precise data on the depth and position of what is to be wiped out.
An article in the New York Times revealed that numerous exercises conducted by the Pentagon have confirmed that several passes of the B-2s are necessary: a first launch, followed in rapid succession by others. Like a hammer that insists on a nail. Even more so if it has to pierce the defenses around the centrifuges at Fordow. In recent days, observers and diplomats have reiterated to the media: only with an American intervention is it possible to damage Fordow and it is not even certain that it will be enough.
Various hypotheses have been formulated taking into account the layers of concrete, earth and other materials used by the workers to transform the center into a fortress. With margins of doubt linked to the lack of precise data. The internal defenses are accompanied by countermeasures around the perimeter to thwart attacks by commandos.
Israel has its own bunker-busters and has demonstrated their devastating use in eliminating the main leaders of the Lebanese Hezbollah. In that case too, the air force adopted the percussion tactic, with a large number of bombs (about 80), one after the other, dropped on a series of buildings in the southern area of Beirut. It is also likely that it used the same method to decapitate the Iranian military leaders. But these weapons are not sufficient to engage a part of the tunnels where Iran has hidden missiles or scientific research facilities. For the other targets, its arsenal is sufficient.
Months ago, a reconstruction that appeared again in the New York Times dedicated to the IDF plans did not exclude an intervention by special forces after a strike, an alternative to make up for the lack of sufficiently powerful bombs. And an action by Israeli elite troops in Syria, in March, with the incursion into the underground missile factory of Maysaf was interpreted by some also as a test with Iran in mind.
It is predictable that the Pasdaran increased the number of men to make an enemy operation too risky, but also simple sabotage, the other way chosen by Mossad to cause damage to Natanz. IAEA sources have revealed that the attacks on Natanz would have caused serious damage to the centrifuges for uranium enrichment, including those housed in the underground part. Even in the laboratories of Tabriz and Isfahan — according to satellite photos — there were consequences, while the IDF is ready for a new assault against 15 sites.
Only that some cards you can play once, the opponent learns the lesson, even if the latest episodes demonstrate that in Tehran someone has not fully carried out their task between errors and underestimation. Information, in these moments, can represent diversions, especially in an endless crisis, with repetitive scenarios but also a framework that has become increasingly unstable.
But let's start from the beginning, from the B-2s. In the last days of March, six American B-2s landed at Diego Garcia, an atoll in the Indian Ocean shared with the British. The arrival was immediately linked to the possibility of actions in Yemen, against the Houthis, and perhaps, in the future against Iran.
The planes remained in Diego Garcia for about a month, then returned to the United States (replaced by four B-52s) and - according to satellite photos cited by the Israeli website Ynet - are expected to return to the base today.
In some cases Diego Garcia becomes the point of arrival after the strike.
While waiting for Donald Trump's decisions, a large Armada has been reassembled that could increase the weight and impact of the raids in the Islamic Republic. Two aircraft carriers, the Vinson in the area and the Nimitz arriving from the East, dozens of fighters - it seems that other F-35s and F-22s have been moved to the Middle East -, cruise carriers, the aircraft based in the region represent a massive strike force. A deployment accompanied by the mobilization of almost 30 refueling aircraft, vehicles that extend the range of the raiders.
From Tehran they reply with missile launches, promise more severe punishments for the Jewish state, claim they have not yet used the best weapons and in any case they have managed to breach the IDF shield again by targeting intelligence headquarters on the outskirts of Tel Aviv. About 400 devices have been fired since the beginning of the crisis, at least 40 impacts, efforts to adapt to enemy countermeasures. No one is taking a step back.
