The world dances to the rhythm of the unpredictability resonating from Washington. The tariff war launched by Donald Trump has brought back old ghosts of tension and uncertainty that, at least on the commercial front, seemed overcome. The US president has launched a battery of tariffs that hit partners and rivals alike, with the promise of reducing the trade deficit, restoring strength to the battered national industry, and making the Rust Belt shine again. But, at least based on the data available so far, the battle is far from achieving its objective. Rather, the effects translate into a cocktail of noise, uncertainty, and strategic movements that are beginning to hit each country unevenly, but without fully fine-tuning the shock. Although they are already making themselves felt, they point to a reconfiguration of global trade relations, from which no one will likely emerge as a clear winner.

The trade balance between January and June, which many countries have released this August, is the first major indicator to be examined since the tariffs were announced. For now, it reflects a double distorting effect: the advance of exports in the first quarter, when companies tried to market their products for fear of the so-called reciprocal tariffs; and the subsequent halt in the second quarter, when U.S. swings froze decisions and generated a wait-and-see climate.

"The evolution of foreign trade data to the United States still does not fully reflect the effects of tariffs," warns Judith Arnal, senior researcher for Economic Affairs at the Elcano Royal Institute."During the first three months of the year, there was a considerable increase in exports to the United States, in order to strategically avoid the tariffs that were later to be introduced." Since April, however,"there has been a strong predominance of uncertainty," she adds.

The numbers confirm this paradox. The US trade deficit reached $465 billion between January and March 2025—compared to $278 billion a year earlier—as a result of an avalanche of early imports. Between April and June, purchases from Europe and Asia did decrease. However, when the semester is considered as a whole, the accumulated deficit rose to $735 billion compared to $577 billion for the same period in 2024, according to official data. Therefore, summarizes Raymond Torres, director of economic analysis at Funcas,"it cannot be said that the US is achieving its goal of reducing its trade deficit with the rest of the world, at least with the data available to us so far."

For the moment, indecision prevails. “One of the immediate effects of the tariffs has been the increase in uncertainty experienced by all economic agents,” explains Carles Mañó Cabello, a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Economics at KU Leuven (Belgium). The inconsistency of the announcements and the sudden changes in plans and threats have frozen investments and slowed strategic decisions: “This increase in uncertainty, coupled with the expectation of higher costs, has caused a sharp pause in investment by certain companies.”

In this mix of chaos and calculation, the 90-day truce announced by Washington in April barely eased the tension. Trump threatened to increase prices if the EU didn't make progress in the negotiations. Exporters and producers found themselves caught between the urgency of speeding up operations, assuming cost overruns, or seeking alternative markets.

That, although with uneven effects, has hit the US's traditional partners. Germany, which historically maintains a high surplus with Washington, saw this surplus shrink by 12.8% in the first half of 2025, according to data published last week. According to the Bundesbank's monthly report, following the increase in US tariffs, Europe's largest economy experienced a decline in industrial production and exports. Last Friday, the country's statistical office revised the GDP growth data for the second quarter: it fell by 0.3%, compared to the 0.1% drop initially expected.

Spain, which is in the opposite situation because its trade relationship with Washington is in deficit, saw exports to the leading power decline by 5.1%. This widened the imbalance in the trade relationship, but did not prevent quarterly GDP growth of 0.7%, a percentage that stands out among European economies due to the country's reduced dependence on the US market and the boost from domestic demand.

Camilo Ulloa, lead economist for the Spain and Portugal unit at BBVA Research, points out that"at the European level, there is a wide range of impacts due to the circumstances of each country." Germany and Italy, for example, are more exposed than Spain or France. The same is true for each sector. There is no clear pattern."Global trade chains point to a reconfiguration, but it is still too early to know who the winners and losers are." Agustín García, also lead economist at BBVA Research, emphasizes that"a country that imposes very high tariffs may have a positive impact on the trade balance in the short term, but in the medium and long term, it is clearly negative."

The aftershocks of the tariff war are not limited to the Old Continent. Japan's bilateral surplus fell 23.9% year-on-year in July, and its exports to the world's largest economy fell 10.1%. On the same day these data were published, the country's Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, proposed strengthening ties with countries in the Indian Ocean and Africa to build"a free and fair economic zone." Tokyo is wary of China's regional (and global) influence and can no longer count on the US, its second-largest trading partner, as it once did. Ishiba visited Seoul this weekend and will host Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi next Friday.

A shot in the foot

The great paradox is that the US, far from emerging stronger from the trade war it has declared, could be one of the main victims. Inflation is skyrocketing due to the rising cost of inputs and goods, and consumers are paying the price of the tariff policy. As Mañó Cabello summarizes:"It negatively affects all consumers in the country, but benefits only a few producers and workers in the Rust Belt (the traditional industrial hub formed by several Midwestern states)." That's why he believes it's like "shooting themselves in the foot, since prices will be higher, leaving less disposable income to consume on other goods or services, and not spending on other industries that could have grown."

BBVA Research analysts also factor in the role of monetary policy and debt. The Federal Reserve is currently maintaining restrictive rates to contain inflationary pressures, although its chairman, Jerome Powell, has opened the door to an interest rate cut in September. Thus, monetary policy becomes a second front of tension, parallel to trade, with effects that amplify global uncertainty.

The long term, although uncertain, points to a reconfiguration of global trade. Mañó Cabello explains that the loss of confidence in a partner that until now was reliable could lead to a paradigm shift, forcing countries to try to forge alliances with actors who, a priori, might seem like systemic rivals politically, but are trustworthy commercially. Europe, in fact, has already seen its imports from China grow through June (though not its exports). Ulloa and García also open the door to Trump's spiral of erratic decisions and bluffs accelerating past negotiations between different blocs to forge new alliances; and Torres speaks of a certain global reorganization with an increase in trade, mainly within Asia.

Time will tell. Arnal recalls that the effects will begin to become more palpable"in the coming months," especially given that most of what Trump calls "reciprocal tariffs" went into effect this summer. In this regard, not only must we keep in mind that products from the rest of the world will be less competitive in the US due to rising prices,"but we must also pay attention to the relative prices resulting from the tariffs." She gives as an example EU goods, with a 15% tariff, which will become more competitive compared to Swiss products, subject to a 39% tariff."It will still take months to see how trade flows are redrawn," the expert notes. Meanwhile, macroeconomic data from some of Washington's traditional partners have already begun to falter.