The US currency rose $55 in a single day, closing July with a 14% gain. Pressure on the foreign exchange market intensified despite the government's interest rates, and the slower agricultural sales exacerbated the shortage of foreign currency.
The official retail dollar climbed to $1,380 for sale at Banco Nación this Thursday, registering a daily increase of $55, the largest in three months. Thus, the currency accumulated a 14% increase in July, driven by growing exchange rate pressure that even the rates approved by the Treasury failed to contain.
On the wholesale market, the dollar reached $1,360, while on the informal market, the blue dollar was offered at $1,330. Meanwhile, the MEP dollar climbed nearly 2.5% to $1,355.41, and the cash settlement (CCL) stood at $1,358.89.
The pressure also shifted to the futures market, where the nearest contracts soared again: August rose 4.3% to $1,406. For December, the market projects a price of $1,525, a 1.7% increase.
According to market calculations, the current value of the official dollar is still below the government's upper limit of the exchange rate band of $1,451.5, leaving room for future increases. The center of the band is at $1,208.7, so the currency is trading 13.6% above that value.
Max Capital explained: "The government appears focused on containing exchange rate volatility and is willing to defend the exchange rate level through interest rate policy. The Central Bank is actively trying to establish a floor in the short end of the curve to bolster the exchange rate structure."
In this regard, on Tuesday the Treasury validated rates of 65% annual percentage rate, a higher yield than that traded on the secondary market. PPI indicated that"rate compression increased from highest to lowest during Wednesday's session, in a context where the Central Bank reappeared in the afternoon swap window, offering passive operations of up to 39% annual percentage rate."
One of the key factors behind the exchange rate pressure is the drop in dollar supply, a result of the end of the temporary reduction in taxes on agricultural exports. Although President Javier Milei announced a permanent reduction at La Rural, it was only formalized this Thursday and will take effect in August.
The lower agricultural sales were reflected in the data: according to economist Amílcar Collante, US$4.039 billion had been received by July 30, but a sharp drop has been observed since July 23, dropping from US$187 million daily to just US$23 million on July 29.
On the other hand, the Economic Research Department of Banco Provincia calculated the remaining margin for the official dollar."If the dollar rises to $1,420 and the Lecap rate at the end of August remains at 3.6% monthly, with those $1,420 we can buy a Lecap and at the end of August we have $1,465 pesos: the upper limit of the range," they noted.
And they concluded: "As long as the distance from the band ceiling exceeds the yield on the Lecap up to its payment date, the carry will remain uncovered. A higher dollar or a much higher rate would balance the score."
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