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Flamingo missiles could nullify the strategic depth that Russia still enjoys - expert

Ukrinform

Ukraine

Thursday, August 21


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The introduction of the new Flamingo missile into mass production and its effective use will leave Russia without the advantage of strategic depth, to which an aggressor can divert important targets, trying to save them from defeat.

This was reported to Ukrinform in an exclusive comment by Fabian Hoffman, a doctoral student and research fellow at the University of Oslo, an expert in the field of rocket technology.

This is a truly important step, as it signals that Ukraine is now able to move from light missile capabilities, long-range drones, and cruise missiles to heavy missile weapons, heavy weapons, the expert noted.

Acknowledging some success in strikes on Russian oil and gas infrastructure involving lighter weapons, the expert emphasized:"The huge difference is evident when a Flamingo charge weighing 1,150 kg, according to the manufacturer, penetrates and explodes inside the target. Compare this with a charge weighing from 20 to 100 kg."

Another important factor is the range of destruction - 3,000 kilometers: This is unprecedented not only for the Ukrainian arsenal, but also for the European one.

This allows Ukraine to threaten virtually any target west of the Urals. This means that the strategic depth that Russia uses to push targets out of reach is potentially nullified and no longer an advantage for Russia, the expert noted.

However, the degree of survivability of the new missile against Russian air and missile defenses is still unknown, as Flamingo has not yet been well-tested in combat conditions.

"The missile will have a huge radar cross-section through the top. I'm not sure, but I'm guessing it's a turbofan engine. Even the overall size of the missile is significant. It also lacks typical stealth characteristics," Hoffman said.

The expert believes that the real question is whether Russia still has enough air and missile defense systems to cover all possible routes of approach.

"It's very likely that this is not the case. We've seen Ukraine successfully penetrate Russian airspace even with converted two-seater aircraft flying at speeds of 100 to 200 kilometers per hour. So Ukraine will be able to do this with the Flamingo," Hoffman said.

The correct operational use of the missile is another important element of effectiveness: What intelligence do the Ukrainians have, what attack vectors are available, what possible approach routes are suitable at a given moment...

It is also important to consider the missile's resistance to electronic warfare, Hoffman noted, adding that it is not yet possible to confirm the manufacturer's report that the missile uses a protected satellite receiver.

As for the production rate, seven missiles per day, which is allegedly mentioned in the manufacturer's plans, is a rather optimistic forecast, while the production of just one missile per day would already be a significant achievement.

If you compare this to the pace of missile production in the world - in the United States, and especially in Europe - this is a pretty good figure, the expert emphasized.

At the same time, he believes, in the long term, Ukraine should scale up production of this model and other heavy missiles. Short- and/or medium-range ballistics, which Ukraine is working on, probably also falls into this category, the expert said.

The presence of an arsenal of such missiles is also important for the period after the end of the war, when Ukraine will have to develop effective deterrent capabilities against a new attack, Hoffman emphasized.

These types of missile weapons can play a truly important role in effectively deterring Russia, simply by demonstrating that Ukraine can, if it accumulates a sufficiently large arsenal of such missiles, destroy, damage, and disrupt critical Russian targets, including infrastructure, thereby signaling that any new aggression is unacceptable.

As reported, Ukraine has introduced a long-range cruise missile Flamingo with a range of 3,000 km. Its photo was published by photojournalist Yefrem Lukatsky on Facebook. In the description of the photo, he commented that the missile has already been launched into mass production. The photo was taken on Thursday, August 14, in an undisclosed location. From the comment under the photo it is known that the work was carried out by the Fire Point company.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that successful tests of the Flamingo have already taken place, and its mass production should begin in January-February.

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