364 MPs voted against the government, while only 194 expressed their confidence. Bayrou must now submit the government's resignation to President Emmanuel Macron. The vote was not about the presidency. Nevertheless, the process is also a setback for Macron.

Bayrou combined the vote with a commitment to austerity. France is heavily indebted and needs to get its finances under control. Bayrou envisions cuts totaling nearly €44 billion for the coming year. To this end, he also advocated abolishing two public holidays. The announcement met with widespread public opposition.

New Prime Minister or new parliamentary chamber?

Macron is now under pressure and must present a new prime minister as quickly as possible to avoid coming under too much pressure himself. He has likely already considered several options over the past two weeks. However, the difficulty lies in the fact that neither his centrist camp nor the left-wing alliance nor Marine Le Pen's right-wing nationalists have a majority of their own in the lower house. With Bayrou, this is the second time in just over a year that a prime minister has failed in this complicated political situation. It is still unclear who Macron could form a stable government with.

A second option is also theoretically conceivable: As he did after the defeat of his centrist forces in last year's European elections, Macron could dissolve the National Assembly and call new elections. The goal would then be to create clearer majorities. However, it is unclear whether voters in France would vote significantly differently after just under a year. It is quite possible that even after a new election, the parliamentary chamber would be similarly divided as it is now, making governing difficult. Cross-party coalitions are uncommon in France.

A new election would also pose the risk for Macron that Le Pen's right-wing nationalists or the left-wing coalition would gain an absolute majority. The head of state would then be de facto forced to appoint a prime minister from their camp. While the prime minister currently remains somewhat in the shadow of the president, Macron would have to relinquish power in such a case. This would result in a so-called cohabitation. Macron has repeatedly emphasized in recent months that he does not want to dissolve parliament again. But he has not categorically ruled it out either.

Economic imbalance threatens to worsen

The renewed failure of a government is unfortunate for France, not only because it threatens political chaos and stagnation. The heavily indebted country urgently needs to consolidate its austerity course and pass a budget for the coming year. Should the political situation remain unstable for a longer period, there is also a risk of a loss of confidence in the markets, which would place an additional strain on France's finances.

Macron will now look to the domestic market under pressure

Despite the international crises, Macron will now focus his attention on domestic affairs for the time being. This means he's likely to take a more relaxed approach to the international stage in the coming days. Berlin and Brussels will have to prepare for less initiative.

The pressure on the head of state is likely to increase again with the fall of the government. The left-wing LFI already wants to depose him and call for early presidential elections. The vote isn't actually scheduled until 2027. The right-wing nationalists are also pushing for elections—either by dissolving the National Assembly or by Macron's resignation.

After two terms in office, Macron cannot run for president again in 2027. It remains unclear who his centrist forces will put forward as his successor. Many in the moderate camp fear that Le Pen could now win the election after several failed attempts. However, due to ongoing legal proceedings, it is still unclear whether the right-wing leader will even be able to run.