The social-liberal Democratic 66 (D66) party is likely to win the Dutch general elections on Wednesday, Oct. 29, according to an Ipsos exit poll.

D66’s projected victory came as a surprise to many as the populist right-wing Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, had been leading in pre-election polls.

D66 secured 27 of the 150 seats in the Dutch parliament, and the PVV came in second with 25 seats, according to the Ipsos poll. The right-wing liberals of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) placed third with 23 seats.

The social democrats of GroenLinks-PvdA, who were in opposition, fell short of expectations with 19 seats. The Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) secured 19 seats, marking a significant recovery from their previous tally of five seats in the 2023 election.

The Ipsos poll projects seat numbers with a small margin of error.

The primary issues of the elections include the societal impact of migration and the ongoing housing shortage. Another key topic is how political parties plan to finance increased defense spending to reach NATO’s 5% GDP target.

Many parties propose funding these defense investments through a combination of tax increases and cuts to healthcare spending.

The parties of the collapsed coalition – the PVV, the right-wing liberal VVD, the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and the centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – received fewer votes than in previous elections, following their unstable reign and breakup over migration policy.

Notably, it remains to be seen if the centrist NSC, a standout winner in 2023 as a new party, will have enough votes to get a seat in parliament.

The Netherlands’ political landscape remains highly fragmented – according to the exit poll, 15 parties will have seats in parliament. It is expected that most votes will be counted by tomorrow morning. A coalition will need to be formed after the dust has settled.

Impact on Ukraine

The Netherlands is one of the biggest supporters of Kyiv’s defense against Moscow.

The Netherlands has allocated €9.58 billion ($11 billion) in aid to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to the Kiel Institute.

The Netherlands and Ukraine are collaborating on drone production. There are also drones produced in the Netherlands that are used by Ukraine to hit targets in Russia.

The winner of the Dutch elections, D66, fully supports Ukraine in its war against Russia. In their party program, they emphasize that it is crucial for Ukraine to join the EU as quickly as possible and to be integrated into NATO.

The party also advocates for increased investments in integration programs for Ukrainians residing in the Netherlands.

The runner-up PVV stated in its party program that it wants to send all Ukrainian men back to Ukraine so they can help their country. The party also proposes reducing financial aid to Ukraine and prioritizing Dutch interests.

Larger parties like the VVD, CDA and GroenLinks-PvdA want to host Ukrainian refugees, keep on supporting Ukraine and invest in defense. Forum for Democracy (FvD), a party that seeks to halt all funding to Ukraine and strengthen ties with Russia, got six seats. It is unlikely that the FvD will join the coalition.

The formation of a new coalition is expected to take some time and will be a challenge, as four or five parties must partner up to secure a majority.

As the largest party, the D66 will have the first opportunity to form a coalition. In the final coalition agreement, the impact on Ukraine will become clearer, though the Netherlands will most likely continue its support.