Oil markets are bracing for lower prices despite US President Donald Trump’s threat of punitive tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, including India and China, with higher output from global producers set to compensate for any potential supply drop from Russia.

The broad Opec+ group, comprising oil-producing nations taking part in initiatives by theOrganisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, agreed on Sunday to raise production by 547,000 barrels per day for September.

Concerns have mounted over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia, marking a reversal of the bloc’s earlier policy of output cuts.

Trump had set a Friday deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine, with India, China andTurkey among the most exposed to the US threat of tariffs on the biggest importers of Russian oil.

On Wednesday, Trump signed an executive order to double tariffs on Indian exports to 50 per cent over Delhi’s purchases of Russian crude oil. The new duties are set to take effect in 21 days from Wednesday, which allows room for negotiations between Delhi and Washington, according to analysts.

A drop in Russian supplies could be expected, but the extent would depend upon any deals between the US and countries like India, China and Turkey, said Pankaj Srivastava, senior vice-president for commodities markets (oil) at Rystad Energy.