Of Germany's more than 83 million inhabitants, around a fifth live in North Rhine-Westphalia. It is home to large cities such as Cologne, Düsseldorf, Dortmund and Essen. 13.7 million voters were able to elect their mayors and representatives to city, municipal, district and regional councils. This is roughly the same as the total population of the East German federal states that were once part of the German Democratic Republic (GDR), but excluding Berlin.

According to the Infratest Dimap forecast, Merz's CDU defended its victory in the 2020 local elections and achieved roughly the same result of around 34 percent of the vote. The SPD probably suffered a slight setback, but its result will be significantly better than at the national level. According to the forecast, the Social Democrats won 22.5 percent of the vote in today's elections, compared to only 16.4 percent in the February snap elections to the Bundestag.

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The AfD, which the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) described as a demonstrably right-wing extremist party in May this year, has strengthened significantly in North Rhine-Westphalia, in contrast to the elections five years ago. While it won five percent of the vote in 2020, it is now forecast to win 16.5 percent. It has more than tripled its gain in five years.

Commentators predicted the AfD's strengthening. They estimated that it would be particularly strong in former bastions of social democracy, such as the former mining and industrial region of the Ruhr. For example, Gelsenkirchen, with a population of a quarter of a million, was one of two districts in the former West Germany where the AfD won in the early parliamentary elections in February. Gelsenkirchen has the highest unemployment rate in Germany, at more than 15 percent.

The Green Party is forecast to suffer major losses in the election, falling to 11.5 percent of the vote. In 2020, it reached 20 percent. The post-communist Left Party appears to have improved somewhat, winning 5.5 percent, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) is forecast to win 3.5 percent. The FDP dropped out of the German Bundestag after the February national elections.

Today's vote concludes this election year in Germany. Next year, state elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate and municipal elections in Bavaria and Hesse will be held in March. In September, state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and municipal elections in Lower Saxony will be held.