A record turnout is expected for the Pride march in the Hungarian capital Budapest. According to AFP, more than 35,000 people are expected to gather at 2 p.m., including MEPs, foreign diplomats and members of government from several European Union countries. Organizers speak of a historic moment and the need to defend fundamental freedoms.

The 30th Budapest Pride, however, is taking place in an atmosphere of open political conflict. The Hungarian police banned the march, and the verdict was upheld by the Supreme Court, the Curia. The organizers plan to appeal to the Court of Justice of the EU, but in the meantime, the mayor of the capital, Gergely Karácsony, has taken over the patronage of the event. This will classify the Pride as a municipal event that does not require police approval.

Orbán talks about the law, the EU about fundamental rights

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said on Friday that while police would not break up Pride, participants should be aware of the “legal consequences.” Under the recently passed law on gatherings, anyone who participates in an event that could “promote homosexuality” could face a fine of up to 200,000 forints (about 500 euros).

“Those who take part in the march are breaking the law,” Orbán said, while rejecting calls from the European Commission as “unacceptable interference” in Hungary’s internal affairs. The Hungarian government says the legislation is aimed at protecting children.

The European Commission, however, reacted sharply. Its President Ursula von der Leyen called on the Hungarian authorities to lift the ban, recalling that freedom of assembly is a fundamental value of the union. The Pride in Budapest has thus become a symbolic test of the extent to which Hungary will maintain democratic standards in an increasingly authoritarian political climate.

Mayor: Police should protect, not intimidate

Mayor Karácsony declared at a briefing with EU Commissioner for Equality Hadja Lahbib on Friday that the march would take place regardless of the ban. “The police have only one task tomorrow: to ensure the safety of Hungarian and European citizens who will participate in the event,” he said.

Karácsony stressed that Pride has a legitimate basis as a city event and that participants cannot face any legal consequences. Pride is organized in cooperation with the Rainbow Mission Foundation (Szivárvány Misszió Alapítvány). However, new security cameras have appeared along the march route, which organizers perceive as intimidation.

Politics, laws and tactics before the elections

On March 18, the Hungarian parliament passed an amendment to the assembly law that bans public events “promoting homosexuality.” In April, it adopted a constitutional amendment that enshrines this legislation at the highest legal level. Critics say it is a clear infringement on freedom of expression and the right to public assembly. The ruling Fidesz party says it is a measure to protect children from “harmful influences.”

Political scientist Daniel Mikecz told AFP that Orbán is once again using the tried-and-true tactic of polarizing society through cultural conflicts ahead of next year's elections."It's a tried-and-true recipe: provoke conflict and mobilize a conservative audience," Mikecz said.

Record turnout and a message for all of Europe

Pride organizers expect today's march to be groundbreaking not only in terms of the number of participants but also in its symbolism of resistance to authoritarian trends in the region."We will not just stand up for ourselves. If this law is not repealed, Eastern Europe could face a wave of similar measures," said co-organizer Viktoria Radvanyi.

Counter-protests are also expected. The far-right party Mi Hazánk has announced that it will hold a parallel demonstration against Pride. The police will monitor the situation and intervene in case of violations of the law.

Thirty years of Pride in Budapest

Pride has been held in Budapest since 1994, but this year is one of the most tense in its history. Analysts say it will be a pivotal moment not only for Hungary's LGBTQ+ community, but also for testing the limits of the rule of law in the European Union.