- After the talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, there was a significant increase in Russian aggression, which culminated in the incursion of 19 Russian drones into Polish airspace on Tuesday evening - according to a statement by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

This incident, which forced the closure of four airports in Poland, marks a qualitative change compared to previous events since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Keys in Eastern Europe

The incident in Poland is not isolated. A month ago, a Russian drone exploded in eastern Poland, while Estonia reported the third violation of its airspace this year by a Russian Mi-8 attack helicopter.

Meanwhile, Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine, including a massive drone strike involving more than 800 drones that hit a key government building in Kiev, killing at least 18 people in late August.

The drone incursion into Poland, although it did not result in significant material damage except for one damaged house, caused concern because the drone did not accidentally go astray. Fragments of the drone were found at significant distances from the Ukrainian border, including Olesno (400 km) and Mnyshkov (260 km).

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius dismissed the possibility that it was an accidental error, emphasizing that the drones' trajectories were deliberately chosen.

Limitations of the NATO air defense system

According to Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the drones used in Poland were cheap Gerber models, usually used as unarmed decoys for air defense testing. These drones, made of polystyrene and worth around $10,000, did not carry explosives, unlike the more dangerous Shahed drones.

Russia may now be testing NATO's air defense capabilities while spreading fear among the population of Eastern Europe. A Russian military blogger with 1.65 million followers boasted that one drone was"flying towards Rzeszow", a city key to Western military logistics for Ukraine, further heightening tensions.

NATO reacted quickly, launching a multinational air defense operation involving:

• Dutch F-35
• Polish F-16
• German Patriot systems
• Italian AVAKS aircraft

However, according to Tusk, only three or four drones were shot down, which is significantly lower than Ukraine's 93 percent success rate in defending against similar attacks. This highlights the limitations of Western air defense systems in dealing with cheap drone swarms, which are not the primary target of their design.

NATO strengthens military presence in the region

British Defense Minister John Healy has announced that he will consider strengthening NATO air defenses over Poland, including the possible return of RAF Typhoon aircraft. These steps suggest that Russia's escalation will result in a greater NATO presence in the region, according to an analysis by the British newspaper"The Guardian".

This incident raises questions about Russian motives. The Kremlin may be testing America's commitment to NATO as the White House considers shifting defense resources away from China.

Matthew Saville of the Royal United Services Institute suggests that Russia may be trying to drive a wedge between the US and its European allies. Without a strong diplomatic response, such as new sanctions, there is a risk of further similar incidents in Eastern Europe.

Europeans are making evacuation plans

While Europe faces these challenges, citizens of eastern Polish regions are increasingly facing warnings to stay in their homes, and media outlets such as"Vyborce" are discussing evacuation preparations. Shadows of past Russian dominance continue to shape perceptions of current threats, making this moment crucial for the future of regional security.

This event marks a turning point in the European situation and a new phase in the war in Ukraine, read more about it in our special text.