This is Index's geopolitical column, World Game, where we provide weekly analyses of the most important developments in international politics and conflicts. Analysts help us understand global processes, great power interests, and their impact on world politics.

Viktor Orbán held talks with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and the meeting caused a significant resonance both at home and in Europe. However, the Hungarian press's attention was not only focused on the political significance of the meeting: a large amount of coverage was also given to the protocol, public event, during which the Hungarian Prime Minister's interpreter misinterpreted the Russian President's words and omitted several important elements of his speech.

According to geopolitical analyst András Kosztur, two main factors made the Moscow meeting between Viktor Orbán and Vladimir Putin timely.

1. One is the increasing diplomatic activity surrounding the peace talks: Hungary is trying to promote the peace process, primarily the rapprochement between Moscow and Washington. Due to the Hungarian Prime Minister's good relations with the leaders of both great powers, the acceleration of the process made personal consultations inevitable.
2. Another key topic of the meeting was energy, which, according to Kosztur, cannot be separated from the war in Ukraine.

“Although the new American sanctions do not affect Hungary, the changed circumstances still justify further negotiations, especially in light of the situation in the region. It has recently emerged that Mol may take on a role in buying out Russian gas and oil interests in Serbia that have been subject to sanctions, and Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Alexander Novak also confirmed that this issue had arisen during the nearly four-hour meeting. Péter Szijjártó also spoke about the possibility of accelerating the Paks II investment, the work on which could start on February 5. All this is thanks to the special sanctions exemption granted to Hungary, which the American side recently confirmed again,” the analyst explained.

As he pointed out, in connection with the war in Ukraine, the parties revealed little about what exactly was discussed in Moscow. Vladimir Putin only stated that he appreciated Hungary's balanced position and supported Donald Trump's proposal that Budapest could be the venue for a future Russian-American meeting. Viktor Orbán also emphasized that for Hungary, peace as soon as possible is of paramount importance for security and economic reasons.

The current phase of the negotiations is extremely sensitive. It is clear that both the Americans and the Russians are trying to make minimal information public – although this does not always succeed – because many actors would still try to hinder peace efforts. It is therefore natural that few details are known about the content of the discussions; they may only become available later, through leaks

– said András Kosztur.

Neither side wants a quick peace deal.

Speaking about the possibilities of ending the war, the analyst said: at present, all that seems certain is that US special envoy Steve Witkoff may visit Moscow in the near future, who may personally discuss the newly drafted peace plan with the Russian leadership. However, the details of the document are still unknown.

The Americans are said to have held the Ukrainian side accountable for leaking the previous draft, so it is easy to imagine that they are now taking extra care to ensure that the content does not become public before its time. What we know – or rather can guess – is that compared to the original twenty-eight-point proposal, the draft has become shorter, presumably consisting of nineteen or twenty-two points. However, it is not yet clear what solutions it contains on the most sensitive issues. However, based on the public statements of the parties, completely opposite positions clash on these issues

– András Kosztur pointed out.

He added that one of the most contentious issues is Ukraine's possible NATO membership, which Kiev and several European countries would continue to maintain, but the Russian side categorically rejects. The original American draft also ruled out this option.

One of the most sensitive points of the peace plan is the fate of the territories of Donbas still under Ukrainian control. Russia wants Kiev to hand over these regions as well, and the original American proposal also pointed in this direction. However, the Ukrainian side firmly rejects this and would like to conclude a ceasefire along the current front lines.

Another contentious issue is limiting the future scope of the Ukrainian army: Moscow wants certain restrictions on personnel, armaments, and foreign military presence, while Kiev either rejects these outright or would maintain them in a form that would not constitute real restrictions in practice.

According to the analyst, the legal status of the territories occupied by the Russians is also a key issue, but its discussion may easily only be on the agenda after the above agreement is reached.

However, the Russian side would like to resolve this issue as soon as possible, although based on Putin's recent statements, it is more with the world's leading states than with Ukraine. This may be of particular importance after the sanctions are lifted, since it is not irrelevant for the economic future of the territories and for the prevention of future conflicts whether Western states consider these regions to be part of Russia or Ukraine, should another armed conflict occur in the future

– said András Kosztur.

According to the analyst's assessment, neither side is showing any particular inclination to make peace quickly.

The Russian leadership believes that time is on their side: even at the cost of significant sacrifices, they can achieve their goals in the long term even if the conflict cannot be ended now. The Ukrainian side, on the other hand, hopes that it can shift the responsibility for the prolongation of the war onto Moscow, and that this will allow Washington to exert greater pressure on Russia and at the same time return to the support for Ukraine that it has been accustomed to in previous years. However, the chances of this are decreasing, and Kiev's room for maneuver is constantly narrowing. It is not ruled out that the Ukrainian leadership has already given in on certain positions, but there is no precise information about this yet

– explained András Kosztur. He added that he believes it is more likely that Kiev is primarily trying to gain time, but domestic political problems are not helping the Ukrainian leadership in this either.

Zelensky in an increasingly difficult situation

As we reported earlier, one of Volodymyr Zelensky's most important confidants, Andriy Yermak, who heads the Presidential Administration, was caught up in the latest corruption scandal.

Yermak was practically the second man in Ukraine, and the current, highly centralized Ukrainian political system is almost entirely based on him. The most important question for Zelensky now is how the increasingly vocal discontented parliamentarians will react. If the president loses control of parliament, he could easily fall into the trap of his opponents and spend the rest of his presidential term as a lame duck, presumably until the elections after the end of the war

– said the analyst.

According to András Kosztur, it cannot be ruled out that Zelensky will try to launch a counterattack against his domestic political rivals. In this case, however, a further escalation of the Ukrainian political situation can be expected, which may be contributed to by the fact that the crackdown on anti-corruption institutions has already triggered a wave of protests in the summer. He added that after the new scandals, it is even less likely that any political showdown initiated by Zelensky would receive widespread support, even if he justified it with the Russian threat.