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What security guarantees can Ukraine receive in exchange for an agreement?

Tuesday, August 19


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As Western leaders discuss the next steps to end the war, the key question is what guarantees the country could receive. Ukraine in order to prevent a new Russian attack in the future.

The discussion followed Monday's meeting at the White House, where the Donald Trump welcomed him Volodymyr Zelensky along with the leaders of Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Finland, the EU and NATO.

The Ukrainian request

Zelensky said that the details will be written down within 7–10 days, with the participation of about 30 countries of the alliance of the willing and with the assistance of the United States.

The guarantees, he said, could include military presence, information provision, air and Black Sea security, as well as financial support.

The role of Europe

Britain and France have shown a willingness to send troops as part of a reassurance force.

THE Emmanuel Macron stated that we must help Ukraine on the ground.

OR Germany It remains to be seen whether Western troops will be stationed on a ceasefire line or have a limited training role in cities like Kiev and Lviv.

The question of the rules of engagement in the event of Russian attacks also remains open.

The United States

Trump has promised to coordinate a European peacekeeping operation, but he made it clear that the Europeans will bear the brunt: They are the first line of defense because they are there. But we will help them, he said.

Ukraine wants to buy US weapons worth $90 billion, including this purchase in security guarantees.

However, Trump has ruled out Ukraine joining NATO and does not appear willing to send US troops. A more realistic scenario is the Pentagon supporting an air defense zone over central and western Ukraine.

Russia's position

According to Trump, Vladimir Putin agreed to the need for guarantees, but the Kremlin categorically rejects the participation of Western troops in Ukraine.

Putin's goals remain unchanged: claiming the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions, limiting Ukrainian military power, and removing Zelensky from power.

With the attacks continuing, the discussion about guarantees seems theoretical.

The historical precedent

Ukraine has a bitter experience of guarantees that turned out to be empty. The 1994, with the Budapest Memorandum, it gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for the assurance of its territorial integrity by the US, Russia, the UK, China and France.

The 1997 Russia signed a treaty of friendship, recognizing the Ukrainian borders. None of this prevented the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and today's invasion.

This experience makes Kiev demand more solid and irreversible commitments this time, as its security remains inextricably linked to its survival and sovereignty.

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