Hamas first violated the ceasefire on Tuesday, particularly after attackers shot soldiers in Rafah, killing one soldier. Israel then declared it would temporarily suspend the ceasefire and launched – according to its own statements – widespread attacks. The Palestinian side reported more than 100 deaths. These figures could not be independently verified. Hamas denied any responsibility for the attacks on the soldiers.

From an Israeli perspective, Hamas violated the ceasefire twice beyond the attack in Rafah: According to Israeli media reports, the Israeli army had previously documented via drone footage of Hamas members dragging a hostage's body from an apartment and burying it in a pit, before later digging it up again in front of the Red Cross. Israel accuses Hamas of deliberately delaying the still incomplete handover of all bodies of deceased or killed hostages and using this as leverage against Israel.

Finally, Hamas abruptly cancelled a hostage body handover scheduled for Tuesday evening – this was in response to Israel's attacks.

Pinpoint tactic and positioning

According to observers, both sides are currently testing the limits of the ceasefire violations without causing its collapse. It's a tactic of pinpricks, used by both sides to gauge the enemy's boundaries and how easily they can be provoked, in order to prepare for the planned negotiations on the next steps in US President Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan.

Netanyahu wants to demonstrate his ability to act

For Israel's right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, it was also an attempt to send a signal domestically. It was no coincidence that the government emphasized it launched the attacks first and only informed the US afterward. Since Trump first forced Netanyahu into what he considered a humiliating apology phone call with Kuwait's Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and then more or less imposed the ceasefire on him, the opposition and some of his own coalition partners have accused him of no longer being able to act independently, but rather of having to have every step approved by Trump. His domestic opponents, of course, will interpret the swift return to the ceasefire as confirmation of just how much Netanyahu is on Trump's short leash.

Test also for the USA

But Hamas, too, is likely testing the limits of what it can go with its violations – not only against Israel, but also against the US. The US must now try to maintain the ceasefire and exert pressure on both sides accordingly.

At the same time, rapid progress toward the next phases of the agreement is likely needed. These phases are extremely vague – and so far, no agreement has emerged between the US and the Hamas-affiliated mediators (primarily Qatar and Turkey) and the other partners in the ceasefire alliance. Recent signals, such as Jordan's King Abdullah's skepticism regarding an international peacekeeping force, offer little cause for optimism.