That's what it's about
- The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip lasted less than 20 days.
- On Tuesday night, according to Israeli sources, a major airstrike was carried out against targets in the Gaza Strip in response to shelling by Hamas.
- Unconfirmed reports indicate that 91 people were killed.
- Even though Israel and the US insist that the ceasefire will continue, the question remains: Is this the end of the fragile peace?
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was described as fragile from the start – now it appears to be on the verge of collapse. According to the Israeli military, Hamas fighters opened fire on Israeli soldiers. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu subsequently ordered retaliatory strikes.
According to local hospitals in the Gaza Strip, more than 90 people were killed. Shortly afterward, Netanyahu vowed to uphold the ceasefire. US President Donald Trump also declared:"Nothing will disrupt the ceasefire." Middle East expert Bente Scheller assesses the situation.
Ms. Scheller, Israel has again launched heavy attacks in Gaza, leaving dozens dead. Does this mean the ceasefire is over?
There have indeed been serious attacks – allegedly triggered by a Hamas attack on Israeli soldiers. This cannot be independently verified. What is clear, however, is that the toll is devastating. Reports now indicate up to 90 dead, including many children. This goes far beyond a mere skirmish.
We are seeing a familiar pattern here, similar to that in Lebanon: a ceasefire that is formally in place but not actually being observed. Israel reserves the right to continue pursuing military objectives, such as destroying Hamas tunnels or infrastructure. This suggests that the fighting will not end abruptly.
Prime Minister Netanyahu speaks of necessary self-defense, while US President Trump emphasizes that the ceasefire will continue. How does that fit together?
Trump is desperate to cling to the narrative that he has brought peace to the Middle East. He has publicly celebrated this achievement, and a collapse of the ceasefire would damage his image. That's why he so vehemently insists it remains in place. But in reality, we see a different picture: The ceasefire exists only on paper, while military operations continue.
At least Trump still seems to have an interest in the region. Isn't that a good sign?
Trump is sending mixed signals. On the one hand, he refers to his peace plan, which is supposed to bring stability. On the other hand, in the first days after the ceasefire, he declared that Hamas had carried out its executions with his approval.
Anyone who simultaneously wants to disarm Hamas while indirectly giving it free rein is acting inconsistently. This makes any mediation more difficult. We also know that of the 20 points in his peace plan, only four have been addressed so far. The rest remain untouched. And these are precisely the crucial issues concerning humanitarian aid, infrastructure, and disarmament.
Hamas recently sparked outrage with a staged hostage rescue. Who is to blame for the renewed escalation?
The issue of the hostages is extremely painful for Israeli society. They should never have been abducted, and the fact that their remains have still not been fully returned is deeply hurtful. Undoubtedly, Hamas is also playing for time and exploiting the situation politically. At the same time, it shouldn't be forgotten that Gaza is now a landscape of rubble. It's plausible that recovering all the remains is indeed difficult. On a positive note, Israel has allowed an international team of experts to assist with the recovery.
For the moment, things seem to have calmed down somewhat, partly because of pressure from the US. But this calm is fragile. The humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip is catastrophic, and aid deliveries are falling far short of the agreed-upon levels.
What is particularly problematic is that US Secretary of State Rubio has spoken out against further cooperation with UNRWA – even though it is responsible for roughly half of Gaza's humanitarian aid. If these structures collapse, the crisis will escalate dramatically. Even if the military situation remains stable in the short term, the humanitarian situation will deteriorate significantly during the winter. And the worse it gets, the greater the risk of the conflict flaring up again. I fear that further escalation is by no means out of the question.
Hope exists only if the diplomatic initiatives are actually taken up – and the remaining open points of the peace plan are finally implemented in earnest.
About the person: Bente Scheller
Bente Scheller has headed the Middle East and North Africa department of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Berlin since 2019. From 2012 to 2019, she was head of the foundation's Middle East regional office in Beirut, Lebanon. Prior to that, she headed the office in Afghanistan and worked as a counterterrorism officer at the German Embassy in Damascus from 2002 to 2004. She holds a doctorate from the Free University of Berlin, where she wrote her dissertation on Syrian foreign policy.
