interview

Elections in several states on the same day – and all successful for the Democrats: US expert Johannes Thimm sees this as a sign of dissatisfaction with President Trump. But the Democrats must make a decision.

tagesschau.de: A candidate who was unknown a year ago and calls himself a democratic socialist wins the mayoral election in New York despite vehement opposition from the Democratic establishment. How can this be explained?

Johannes Thimm: New York is a very special case and cannot be considered representative of the USA as a whole. Two things are crucial. Firstly, Zhoran Mamdani is a very talented, charismatic politician. He ran a dedicated campaign and skillfully used social media. He is young and represents a generational shift. That resonated with New Yorkers.

The fact that Mamdani is significantly left of the Democratic Party's mainstream has a lot to do with New York. The city is more liberal and tolerant than the rest of the country. Mamdani is also a Muslim. He has managed to capitalize on the cost-of-living crisis, the increasing unaffordability of New York City, for his election campaign. His socialist demands for rent control, free public transportation, and higher taxes for the wealthy have resonated strongly with voters in this context.

To person

Johannes Thimm is head of the Americas research group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). His research focuses on the relationship between the USA and international organizations and international law.

What conclusions can the Democrats draw?

tagesschau.de: Can the Democrats draw any lessons from this with a view to the midterm elections next year? Or will the lessons learned from this election remain primarily focused on New York?

Thimm: As far as candidate Mamdani is concerned, the lessons remain limited to New York. With one exception: One lesson is certainly that a generational change would do the party good.

However, there is a fundamental debate within the Democratic Party about whether to focus more on progressive, left-leaning, perhaps even populist candidates, or rather on candidates from the more moderate center. The general lesson for Democrats is that they should nominate candidates who are a good fit for the respective districts and elections; candidates who, given the local circumstances, have a chance of winning. Therefore, the question of whether to nominate left-wing or more moderate candidates should not be answered generally, but rather on a case-by-case basis.

"Democrats still have a bad reputation"

tagesschau.de: At the same time, gubernatorial elections were held in two states. Democrats won in both. In Virginia, there was a switch from Republicans to Democrats. These candidates are not as clearly left-wing as Mamdani in New York.

Thimm: Exactly. In both states, it was classically moderate candidates from the center who positioned themselves in exactly the same way. The Democratic Party as a whole continues to have a poor image in the polls – even though US President Donald Trump and his policies are currently extremely unpopular. This is because many voters believe the Democratic Party has lost touch with reality.

Therefore, there is a discussion within the Democratic Party about whether it is permissible to nominate candidates in more conservative areas who deviate from the party line on some key issues, such as abortion rights. From an electoral perspective, this would certainly be advantageous. There are a few examples of Democrats who won districts for the House of Representatives in the last election that simultaneously voted overwhelmingly for Trump as president. And these Democrats had aligned themselves with their districts.

"Democrats must unite many people"

tagesschau.de: Won't the Democrats still have to decide on a direction with a view to 2028?

Thimm: I'm not so sure about that. The next presidential election is still a long way off, so it's too early to make predictions. Secondly, I'm not even sure that the dispute over ideological orientation is so decisive for this election. We remember Barack Obama, the most successful Democratic presidential candidate of recent times, who was also re-elected. He managed the balancing act of being a projection screen for different factions within the party quite well.

The Democratic Party needs a grand coalition. It needs to be a"Big Tent Party," as they say in the US. To win elections, it needs to unite a great many people under its umbrella. Ordinary voters don't necessarily think in terms of left versus center, moderate versus progressive, or radical. They want candidates they perceive as authentic, candidates who make them feel represented.

One problem for the Democratic Party in recent years has been that particularly organized civil society groups have dictated the party's agenda, and that the party leadership has listened too much to politically engaged, organized people at the grassroots level. This has pulled the party to the left and contributed to many voters, especially in rural areas, feeling unrepresented by the party. This is one of the reasons why the Democrats are still so unpopular, even though people should actually be flocking to them because they are so dissatisfied with Trump.

"Mamdani is the ideal enemy image for very conservatives"

tagesschau.de: Will the Republicans try to portray the Democrats as dominated by the radical left because of the election results in New York?

Thimm: The Republicans will certainly try that. Trump has already started. Of course, Mamdani is an ideal enemy image for very conservatives because he is so far left and because he is a Muslim.

Republicans in Congress have long tried to portray Democrats as radical, crazy, out of touch with reality, and Marxist. Whether they continue to succeed depends largely on the Democrats themselves, the issues they campaign on, the candidates they nominate, and whether they manage to improve their image somewhat in the medium term.

"The wake-up call for Trump is undeniable."

tagesschau.de: But the Republicans also have to acknowledge that despite all of Trump's boasting about his popularity ratings and his successes, his poll numbers are not good and the voters are now sending him a message by voting for the Democrats.

Thimm: That's definitely true! But one shouldn't overinterpret the election result. There's still a year until the midterm elections. In these kinds of elections outside the normal election cycle, voter turnout is different than in larger elections, such as the midterm congressional elections and the presidential elections. Those tend to attract more interested and engaged voters, and they are only partially representative.

But the wake-up call for Trump is undeniable. We know from other polls that Trump's approval ratings are at a historic low. Until recently, they were only on par with those of the first Trump presidency; now they are even lower.

Trump's poor poll numbers

tagesschau.de: Does the current government shutdown also play a role?

Thimm: Voters are currently blaming the Republicans for the budget shutdown. But even on issues where he is perceived as competent, Trump isn't doing well. His approval ratings are poor on the economy. They're best on immigration policy, but even there, more people are dissatisfied than satisfied. And in other areas, his ratings are even more decidedly negative.

But the decisive area, in my opinion, is the economy. Because that was the main reason for Trump's election victory. People trusted him to boost the economy and lower the cost of living. And he's performing very poorly in that regard.

The results of all the elections yesterday were clear. This is undoubtedly also a result of voters' dissatisfaction with the government. Democrats can interpret this as a glimmer of hope for the next midterm elections.

What are the effects of redrawing electoral district boundaries?

tagesschau.de: However, the Republicans and now also the Democrats are trying to redraw the electoral districts in their favor before the election.

Thimm: The redrawing of electoral districts is in full swing, and Republicans have the opportunity to do so in more states than Democrats. Republicans are trying to frame the electoral process so that Democrats need a decisive victory in the midterm elections to gain a majority in the House of Representatives. A majority in the Senate is even harder to achieve. It's not entirely impossible for the Democrats to succeed, but at the moment it seems rather unlikely.