Taiwan's Han Kuang exercises this year showcased the US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launcher system, the M1A2T Abrams tank, and the domestically produced Sky Sword II air defense missile. However, some analysts point out that while Taiwan's strategic thinking is shifting toward"prolonged resistance and awaiting external assistance," if a cross-strait war breaks out, these new weapons would likely be unable to alter the battlefield dynamics with China if the People's Liberation Army quickly seizes air superiority and strikes Taiwan's transportation hubs.

The South China Morning Post reported that the August issue of the Chinese military magazine Ordnance Technology focused on three advanced weapons displayed in Taiwan's annual Han Kuang military exercises, as well as the countermeasures that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) could take.

This article evaluates the combat effectiveness of the US-made HIMARS multiple rocket system, the M1A2T Abrams tank, and Taiwan's domestically produced Sky Sword II air defense missile, and proposes countermeasures such as reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and attacks on traffic hubs, arguing that these new equipment are unlikely to change the overall battlefield situation.

"Ordnance Technology" is a magazine that is deeply loved by military enthusiasts. It is managed by the Shaanxi Provincial Society for the History of Science and Technology. It mainly reports on popular science, the latest military developments and national defense trends in China, and provides analysis of the military situation in other countries or regions.

Han Kuang exercises focus on Beijing's"gray zone" tactics

Taiwan's Han Kuang Exercise 41, held in July of this year, was significantly different from previous years in both scale and duration. The exercise doubled in length to 10 days and, for the first time, expanded beyond coastal defense to encompass full-scale urban warfare, simulating house-to-house combat under the PLA's advance. The core of the exercise focused on countering Beijing's so-called"gray zone" tactics—sustained pressure on Taiwan without provoking open conflict.

During this year's exercises, Taiwan also displayed several newly purchased pieces of equipment from the United States, including the Lockheed Martin-developed Himars high-mobility multiple rocket system and the American-made M1A2T Abrams main battle tank.

The article directly refers to the Taiwanese military as"Taiwan independence forces" and points out that the exercises extend and deepen defense projects, reflecting a shift in Taiwan's strategic thinking, namely"extending resistance and waiting for external assistance."

The PLA can "destroy" the HIMARS upon detection

However, the author emphasizes that Taiwan's reliance on new weapons is insufficient to change the battlefield situation. The article specifically focuses on the HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system, noting its high maneuverability, flexible strike capabilities, and ability to carry a variety of warheads. The author notes that during the Han Kuang exercises, the HIMARS relied primarily on its mobility to"preserve combat power," essentially avoiding PLA detection before waiting for an opportunity to launch an attack.

The HIMARS is equipped with six launch tubes capable of launching multiple rockets. Guided by GPS satellites, it has a maximum range of 70 kilometers. It can also carry the ATACMS (Tactical Missile System), with a range of up to 300 kilometers. It is widely believed that the HIMARS will play a key role in any conflict over the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwan Strait has an average width of 180 kilometers.

On the Russo-Ukrainian battlefield, the HIMARS missile system has been used numerous times to strike key Russian targets. The article notes that Taiwan considers the HIMARS system a"powerful anti-landing weapon" because it inflicted significant damage on Russian forces in the early stages of the Russo-Ukrainian War, despite the Russians' lack of the ability to disrupt GPS navigation and counter high-mobility firepower systems at the time.

There are few reliable records of the HIMARS being destroyed by the Russian military. However, the author claims that the PLA's reconnaissance and electronic warfare capabilities are superior to those of the Russian military, enabling it to quickly locate and suppress the HIMARS. In the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the PLA would quickly seize air superiority over the strait and, through its multi-layered reconnaissance network and integrated reconnaissance-strike drones, ensure that the HIMARS"is destroyed upon detection."

The article also pointed out that the HIMARS relies on road networks for rapid maneuvering. If the PLA focuses on attacking transportation hubs along Taiwan's western coast, such as bridges and tunnels, it will significantly weaken the HIMARS's mobility and force it to be confined to a predetermined attack area.

In August, a mockup of a HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system, suspected to be purchased by Taiwan from the United States, was photographed in a Chinese parking lot, sparking speculation that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) may be using the mockup for simulated training in preparation for a potential cross-strait conflict. Taiwan placed its first order for HIMARS in 2020, with the first batch delivered last year and live-fire testing conducted in May of this year. An additional 18 systems are expected to be delivered early next year.

During Taiwan's Han Kuang 41 exercise in July, Patriot missiles were deployed in Taipei's riverside park. (Photo by Chen Kai)

"Tenken II" is in small quantities and is difficult to resist saturation attacks

The article also pointed out that the new air defense missile "Sky Sword II" (TC-2), which appeared in the Han Kuang exercise and was developed in Taiwan, was deployed around some of the command center's airports. It is mainly responsible for field air defense to prevent PLA fighter jets from advancing toward eastern Taiwan.

The Sky Sword II system has a range of approximately 15 kilometers and features electronic jamming and countermeasure capabilities. It also integrates with phased array radar to enable coordinated combat. Previously, Taiwan's Army's field air defense operations were largely independent. However, under this new system, different types of surface-to-air missile vehicles can collaborate with each other to form a multi-tiered air defense network.

The article points out that the Tianjian-II will operate in conjunction with the US-made"Patriot system". Although the Patriot has stronger air defense capabilities, it is also more likely to become the PLA's primary target, which in turn increases the Tianjian-II's chances of survival.

The author also warned that while the Tianjian-II missiles could bolster defenses in the short term, their limited numbers would make the defense network insufficiently dense and difficult to withstand a saturation attack by the People's Liberation Army. Taiwan procured 246 Tianjian-II land-based missiles and 29 launch vehicles in 2019.

Taiwan is a land of mountains and rivers, and Abram has become a trapped beast.

The article also discussed the M1A2T Abrams main battle tank, which debuted at the Han Kuang exercises, calling it a"Taiwan-specific version." Taiwan's Abrams tank is based on the US military's M1A2 SEPv3 model. Taiwan has purchased 108 of them, with another 28 expected to be delivered next year.


Live-fire exercises have shown that these Abram tanks are equipped with 120mm smoothbore guns that can penetrate up to 85cm thick armor and hit enemy targets at a distance of up to 4km.

The author of the article points out that these tanks' maneuverability and responsiveness are acceptable, even excellent. Their average speed is twice that of Taiwan's current tanks, enabling them to support troops more quickly and improving battlefield mobility. However, the problem lies in the"operating environment." These 63-ton tanks are suited to assaults in flat or desert environments. On an island like Taiwan, with its mountainous terrain, numerous rivers, and limited access, these tanks have limited space to maneuver. If the PLA focuses its attacks on bridges and roads, they will become trapped.

The article also cited experience from the Russian and Ukrainian battlefields to warn that if Taiwan cannot effectively counter the surveillance and attack of enemy drones, the combat effectiveness of its tanks will be greatly reduced. Beijing has already taken the lead in drone-related technology.